NOAA's winter outlook puts the odds on a warm north and a wet south during a record El Niño
NOAA's December-to-February outlook tilts the odds toward a warmer northern tier and a wetter south, West Coast and Eastern Seaboard during a record El Niño. The maps are odds, so planners get a lean to start from and no totals to budget against.
The Product Desk
Warmer likely: Midwest, much of the East, Pacific Northwest. Wetter likely: Southern California, Eastern Seaboard. Drought may ease: Southwest, Southeast. Drought could develop or worsen: northeastern Oregon, eastern Washington. Equal precipitation chances: Ohio Valley, northern Plains.
- Who's exposed exposure Midwest and much of the East High probability of above-average temperatures, also in the Pacific Northwest, the Mississippi Valley and Alaska, claim 6
- Who's exposed exposure Southern California Wetter-than-average conditions most likely, as along the Eastern Seaboard from the Gulf Coast to the Mid-Atlantic, claim 10
- Who's exposed exposure Southwest and Southeast NOAA expects drought to improve or potentially disappear, also in the southern Great Plains, claim 13
- Who's exposed exposure Northeastern Oregon Drought could develop or worsen, as in eastern Washington and parts of the northern Rockies, claim 14
- What it limits constraint Ohio Valley, northern Plains Equal chances of below-, near- or above-average precipitation, as in the Intermountain West, claim 11
| Who | How | Kind | Claim |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midwest and much of the East | High probability of above-average temperatures, also in the Pacific Northwest, the Mississippi Valley and Alaska | exposure | 6 |
| Southern California | Wetter-than-average conditions most likely, as along the Eastern Seaboard from the Gulf Coast to the Mid-Atlantic | exposure | 10 |
| Southwest and Southeast | NOAA expects drought to improve or potentially disappear, also in the southern Great Plains | exposure | 13 |
| Northeastern Oregon | Drought could develop or worsen, as in eastern Washington and parts of the northern Rockies | exposure | 14 |
| Ohio Valley, northern Plains | Equal chances of below-, near- or above-average precipitation, as in the Intermountain West | constraint | 11 |
What happened
- NOAA's temperature map puts high odds on above-average readings across northern California, the Pacific Northwest, the Midwest, the Mississippi Valley, much of the East and Alaska.
- Drier-than-average conditions are most likely in Hawaii, much of Alaska, the northern Mountain West and parts of the Great Lakes, according to Gizmodo's account of the outlook.
- The U.S. Drought Monitor puts 45% of the nation in drought, with the most severe conditions in south-central and western states.
- Across the Southwest, the southern Great Plains, the Southeast and parts of the East Coast, NOAA expects drought to ease and possibly end.
Why it matters
- Who has to decide decision Teams in the Ohio Valley, northern Plains and Intermountain West get equal chances on precipitation. That means the outlook favours no outcome there, and they have to plan from their own history.
- What doesn't add up contradiction The Pacific Northwest sits in the wet-leaning band, yet drought could develop or worsen in northeastern Oregon and eastern Washington, so reading the region as one block hides a drier pocket.
- What it limits constraint Neither scientists nor climate models have seen an El Niño this strong, so past winters give limited guidance on how far to trust the tilt.
Anyone in Southern California who opens the precipitation map is looking at one of the places where wetter-than-average conditions are most likely [10]. Gizmodo, which summarized the outlook, reports that the 90-day product does not predict actual temperatures or precipitation amounts. It gives the likelihood that the season's average will be above, near or below normal, plus the likely direction of drought [3].
The tilt comes from the strongest El Niño on record, which Gizmodo says is still intensifying [1]. Gizmodo adds that every El Niño unfolds differently. Stronger events tilt the odds toward the expected outcomes, but even the most powerful one cannot guarantee specific impacts [4].
The warm half of the map has a second driver. Gizmodo reports that research shows winter warming faster than any other season for the majority of the United States, and that El Niño temporarily exacerbates that long-term trend [8]. The lean is also uneven. Near-normal temperatures are most likely for parts of the Southeast from Louisiana to Florida, while Hawaii and much of the Southwest have equal chances of all three outcomes [7].
The practical risk sits in the wet lean. Ken Graham, director of NOAA's National Weather Service, said: "While higher chances of rain and snow may bring relief to drought-afflicted areas, too much precipitation on dry soil can fuel destructive flash floods and mudslides." [15]
We'd use the outlook as the starting assumption for any winter decision you can revise, and plan for the tail on any decision you cannot. The cost is real: tail planning spends money in winters when the wet lean produces no flood. Sort each decision by two questions: does its cost follow the season's average or a single event, and can you change it once December starts.
- Average-driven and revisable: take the outlook as the default and revisit it monthly. - Average-driven and fixed: treat the outlook as one input and keep a reserve for the below-normal case. - Event-driven and revisable: ignore the seasonal lean and set triggers on short-range forecasts. - Event-driven and fixed: plan for the flood or the storm in every wet-leaning region, whatever the season total.
What to watch
- Whether the Drought Monitor's 45% share falls in the southern and eastern areas where NOAA expects drought to improve or disappear.
- Whether drought develops or worsens in the northern Rockies, northeastern Oregon and eastern Washington, the places NOAA flags for deterioration.
- Whether the El Niño keeps intensifying, since Gizmodo describes it as still strengthening.
Clarity's read
What the record supports and how the coverage leans. The claims behind it follow.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence60
Claim ledger
Ranked by verification strength, evidence, and original report placement.
- [1]
The strongest El Niño on record is still intensifying.
- [2]
NOAA's temperature and precipitation outlook spans December 2026 to February 2027 and generally predicts warmer-than-average temperatures across the northern tier and wetter-than-average conditions across the southern tier, much of the West Coast and the Eastern Seaboard.
- [3]
The 90-day outlook does not predict actual temperatures or precipitation amounts; it describes the likelihood that the season's average temperature and precipitation will be above normal, near normal or below normal, and how drought conditions are likely to change.
- [4]
Every El Niño unfolds differently; stronger events tilt the odds toward expected weather outcomes, but even the most powerful El Niño ever observed cannot guarantee specific impacts.
- [5]
Forecasting the effects of the 2026-2027 El Niño may be complicated by climate change and by the fact that neither scientists nor climate models have ever seen an event of this magnitude.
- [6]
NOAA's seasonal temperature outlook shows a high probability of above-average temperatures across northern California, the Pacific Northwest, the Midwest, the Mississippi Valley, much of the East, Alaska, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
- [7]
Near-normal temperatures are most likely for parts of the Southeast from Louisiana to Florida, while Hawaii and much of the Southwest have equal chances of below-average, near-average or above-average temperatures.
- [8]
El Niño is not solely responsible for the increased likelihood of above-average winter temperatures across more than half of the country; research has shown winter is warming faster than any other season for the majority of the United States, and El Niño temporarily exacerbates that long-term trend.
- [9]
According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, 45% of the nation is currently in drought, with the most severe conditions concentrated in south-central and western states.
- [10]
Wetter-than-average conditions are most likely across the southern tier, particularly in Southern California, southwestern Arizona and along the Eastern Seaboard from the Gulf Coast to the Mid-Atlantic, and the increased likelihood of above-normal precipitation stretches as far north as the Pacific Northwest and southern Maine.
- [11]
The Intermountain West, northern Plains, Ohio Valley, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands have equal chances of below-average, near-average or above-average precipitation.
- [12]
Hawaii, much of Alaska, the northern Mountain West, parts of the Great Lakes and the western Pacific Islands are most likely to see drier-than-average conditions.
- [13]
NOAA expects drought conditions to improve or potentially disappear in the Southwest, southern Great Plains, Southeast and parts of the East Coast.
- [14]
Drought conditions could develop or worsen across parts of the northern Rockies as well as northeastern Oregon and eastern Washington.
- [15]
"While higher chances of rain and snow may bring relief to drought-afflicted areas, too much precipitation on dry soil can fuel destructive flash floods and mudslides," said Ken Graham, director of NOAA's National Weather Service.
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Sources
1 independent publisher whose own reporting we read for this story.
- gizmodo.comNew Maps Show How Drastically This Year’s ‘Super’ El Niño Could Influence Winter Weather in the US
1 article · October 16, 2026
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