Korea added nuclear reactors and Alaska LNG to its $200 billion U.S. plan without feasibility reviews

At Donald Trump's figure, Alaska LNG alone would take $54 billion of a $200 billion pledge, or 27% ^[17]. The Industry Ministry's feasibility study never examined it ^[1]. The eight large reactors in the "nuclear framework" were outside that study as well ^[4][1]. The reporting does not put a dollar figure on the reactors or on the Texas plant.

The projects they displaced did go through a review process ^[1]. A preliminary review team formed on March 18, and an external advisory study of the Texas plant was commissioned on April 12 ^[5]. The ministry requested the three-project feasibility contract on May 28 ^[6]. The contractor was selected on June 16, 98 days before the Sept. 22 briefing ^[13]. Inside that window, two of the three projects under study were dropped and replaced ^[2].

So Seoul paid for a feasibility review of three projects and kept one of the projects it covered ^[2]. The ministry did not extend the study to the new additions when the line-up changed ^[1]. The two replacements reached a White House announcement before any comparable study: Trump said on Wednesday that Korea would invest $54 billion in Alaska LNG ^[16].

The joint fact sheet promises a review of whether the project is commercially viable and complies with Korean law ^[11]. That review can go one of three ways. A figure below $54 billion, or a decision not to invest, would mean the economics were tested after all, only late. A result of exactly $54 billion would be hard to tell apart from a study fitted to a number already announced ^[16]. A review that drags on leaves Trump's figure as the only one in public.

In my view politics set the number, or rather the only number anyone has said out loud, and has not yet set the money. The Industry Ministry makes that point in its own defence. "The two projects other than the Texas power plant have not yet reached the stage of a final investment decision, which is why they were not reported to the National Assembly," an Industry Ministry official said ^[8].

Rep. Choi Soo-jin of the People Power Party, who obtained the documents, reads the same record differently ^[1]. "Putting projects that had not even undergone feasibility or economic reviews into a $200 billion U.S. investment plan amounts to a serious failure in trade policy and an abuse of administrative authority," Choi said ^[15].

The thesis fails if the viability review produces its own figure and Seoul commits to that figure. It holds if the first number Korea attaches to Alaska LNG is Trump's $54 billion ^[16].