Semiconductor, crude and gold imports push the US trade deficit to $105.6 billion

Imports rose 4.3% to $420.8 billion ^[3]. That implies July imports of about $403.5 billion and an August increase of roughly $17.3 billion ^[18]. Capital goods, the line led by semiconductors, were about 36% of that increase ^[19]. Industrial supplies were about 53% ^[20], and crude and gold made up most of that line ^[10]. Neither is AI equipment. Imports from Canada alone rose $4.6 billion, to $37.1 billion ^[5], about a quarter of the month's increase ^[24].

The AI case is stronger over two months than over one. July's goods deficit widened on a surge in capital goods imports tied to artificial intelligence investment, according to Quartz ^[8]. Matthew Martin, senior US economist at Oxford Economics, attributed that surge to business spending on high-tech equipment. He said capital goods imports were expected to support strong import growth well into 2027 ^[13]. On this record, the money going into AI equipment is being spent on imports, and the tariff regime has not redirected it. The US goods deficit with Taiwan was $18.3 billion in August, larger than the $16.4 billion with China ^[4].

If tariffs had cut import dependence, the US import bill would be smaller. Through August it was $129.5 billion larger than in the same months of 2025, while exports were $267.7 billion larger ^[6]. Exports grew about 2.1 times as much as imports ^[17]. The goods deficit fell $109.7 billion, to $802.6 billion, and the services surplus grew $28.4 billion, to $245.5 billion ^[12][21].

The recent months point the other way. The three-month average deficit through August was $89.9 billion, $25.4 billion above the comparable average a year earlier ^[14]. That puts the year-ago average near $64.5 billion ^[22]. August also came in $3.6 billion above the $102 billion Dow Jones consensus, according to CNBC ^[9][23].

The numbers fit more than one path from here. If crude and gold reverse while capital goods hold, the monthly gap drops back toward its three-month average and the AI line keeps growing underneath. Should capital goods keep climbing, as Martin expects, the deficit stays above last year's monthly average for much longer than two months ^[13][15]. On a third path, exports keep outgrowing imports by enough to preserve the year-to-date narrowing even with the import bill still high.

I think the claim that tariffs have not cut import dependence holds. Eight months into 2026, the US has bought more abroad than in the same stretch of 2025 ^[6]. The AI-equipment explanation covers about a third of August ^[19] and, by Quartz's account, most of July ^[8]. The counter-case is that two wide months sit against a year of narrowing, and a 53% share from crude and gold could make August an outlier ^[20]. The import claim fails if the cumulative gain over 2025 shrinks between September and December while exports keep rising.