IDC expects PC prices to stay above 2025 levels after memory supply eases

Whoever owns the refresh budget has to put one number on a line: what a laptop costs in 2027. The two figures in circulation, 20.1% ^[1] and 18.3% ^[2], are easy to read as one finding. They answer different questions.

What teams tell themselves about a 20% drop is that buyers balked at the price. What IDC says happened is narrower. It attributed part of the downturn to manufacturers and distributors buying inventory earlier in 2026, ahead of anticipated memory-related price increases. That pulled shipments into the first half and left the third quarter without its usual seasonal boost ^[6].

The count also covers PCs shipped to distribution channels or end users, not retail purchases alone ^[5]. On that definition the quarter shipped 15.8 million fewer units than a year earlier ^[17]. IDC assigns part of that gap to purchases made in the first half ^[6].

The price figure has limits of its own. The 18.3% is an industrywide average, not an increase IDC expects for every computer ^[10]. Individual prices will keep depending on manufacturer pricing, configurations, inventory levels and retailer promotions ^[12]. TechRepublic's report does not include a 2027 price figure, so carrying 18.3% forward into 2027 would be an assumption IDC has not made in the material reported.

In our view, configuration is where a standardised fleet will see the effect first. TechRepublic says manufacturers may respond by adjusting memory configurations or limiting lower-cost options ^[18]. A purchase order written around one entry-level model is more exposed to that than an average across the whole market.

We'd sort each device group on two questions. The first is whether the machine still does its job and still receives security updates, which is where TechRepublic's checklist for buyers starts ^[15]. The second is whether the replacement date is fixed by something outside IT's control, such as a lease.

- Adequate machine, flexible date: hold and watch quotes. TechRepublic says buyers in this position have more flexibility to monitor pricing ^[14]. - Adequate machine, fixed date: ask for quotes early on today's configuration and the next tier up, and budget above 2025 unit prices ^[9]. - Failing machine, either date: buy now. In TechRepublic's words, "comparing current configurations and discounts may be more useful than waiting for an uncertain market recovery" ^[14].

The cost in the first two cells is price risk that sits with you. The cost in the third is paying an elevated price, and the only near-term relief the report points to is retail discounts and excess inventory ^[13].