Xiaomi's phone shipments fell more than 30% in a Q3 market that shrank 20%

The reports of Counterpoint's data do not split the 20% ^[1] between memory and everything else, so the share figures are the better test. Samsung's shipments fell 3% ^[4] in a market that fell 20% ^[1]. That implies a year-ago share near 19%, since 23% divided by the ratio of 0.97 to 0.80 is 18.97% ^[11].

Xiaomi runs the other way. A fall of more than 30% to a 10% share ^[2] means it held at least 11.4% a year earlier, since 10% times 0.80 divided by 0.70 is 11.4% ^[12]. Apple's shipments also fell, but its share rose to a record 22% ^[6], so its decline was smaller than the market's 20% ^[13]. Between Xiaomi and Samsung the gap in shipment decline is more than 27 percentage points ^[14].

There are three ways to read that spread. One is supply denial: makers could not get the chips. A second is price. Channelnewsasia.com reported that rising memory prices, as AI infrastructure projects corner supplies, pushed manufacturers to raise retail prices, cut shipments and prioritize profitability over volumes ^[8]. A third is demand, and Counterpoint senior analyst Shilpi Jain said, "Consumers are holding on to their devices longer than estimated, increasingly considering refurbished devices and prioritizing higher-value devices." ^[9]

We think price carries most of it, and the Xiaomi detail is the reason. A maker that pulls back from cheap phones is choosing which volume to give up ^[10], and we'd expect Samsung, with stable supply for its mid-range devices ^[5], to have felt less pressure to choose. Cryptobriefing.com argued that Apple's customers are the least price-sensitive in the market, which is why its slice grew while the whole shrank ^[16].

This would be wrong, or at least incomplete, if memory costs eased and volume at Xiaomi, OPPO and vivo did not come back. That outcome would mean Jain's reading, buyers choosing to wait, was the larger share of the 20%. The preliminary status of the data adds a second risk, because the Apple and Samsung share figures could move when final numbers replace them.