ScienceNot yet confirmed elsewhere1 publisher2 min readPublished
Slow-moving Hurricane Simon is forecast to pass 15 km off Jalisco without landfall
Hurricane Simon, now a Category 3 storm, is forecast to pass about 15 km off Jalisco state in Mexico without making landfall. The U.S. National Hurricane Center still expects its eastern inner core to produce hurricane conditions.
The Scientist · Science desk
Three key figures: Hurricane Simon is moving at just 7 km/h, waves of up to 9 meters are forecast along the coast, and the Mexican navy evacuated about 100 people by boat to Puerto Vallarta on Saturday.
| Figure | Value | Note | Claim |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward speed | 7 km/h | 8 | |
| Waves of up to | 9 meters | 7 | |
| Evacuated by navy boat (about) | 100 people | 13 |
What happened
- Earlier weather reports had forecast landfall around midday local time, but data from hurricane hunter aircraft showed the cyclone moving more slowly than expected.
- The NHC said Simon appears to be feeling the high terrain of the Sierra Madre Mountains as its inner core brushes against the Mexican coast.
- The NHC's latest report put Simon's sustained winds at 200 km/h (125 mph), with the storm moving at just 7 km/h (4 mph).
- Fabian Vazquez, director of Mexico's meteorological service, told AFP to expect waves of up to nine meters and exceptionally heavy rainfall.
- On Saturday the Mexican navy evacuated about 100 people by boat to Puerto Vallarta, where five shelters had already taken in 95 people.
Why it matters
- exposure Vazquez told AFP that coastal communities will still be affected by the cyclone's cloud bands without a direct landfall, so the landfall label is a poor guide to who is exposed.
- cost Boris Comi, a Jalisco civil protection meteorologist, said a nearly stationary Simon can "generate more rain over a longer period," which he said "puts the population at greater risk."
- contradiction The Mexican government expects Simon to weaken gradually over the coming hours, while Vazquez said a path parallel to the coast makes it easier for the storm to hold a slightly higher category.
The 15 km figure is a forecast distance [3]. It does not say how far Simon's hurricane-force winds extend from the center, so the number cannot be converted into expected winds at any given town. The NHC's wording is hedged in the same way: it called a miss "increasingly likely" and limited it to "the short term" [5]. The track has also moved once already, when Simon shifted course on Sunday [1].
Land is the usual brake on a storm: moving overland helps weaken it [16]. Simon is skirting the coast without crossing it, so only the edge of the storm passes over land. In our view, the Category 3 label is a weaker guide to the coast's exposure than the storm's distance and speed, because those two set how much of the storm reaches land and for how long.
The speed figure is the one to read beside the distance. At the NHC's 7 km/h, the center would cover about 168 km in 24 hours if it held that pace [18]. The report gives 7 km/h as the storm's current speed [8].
Puerto Vallarta has some natural protection. Its position in a bay and the nearby mountains reduce the force of cyclones [15].
AFP puts Simon in a busy Pacific season in which El Nino is weakening wind shear and letting storms gain strength, while the Atlantic season has stayed relatively quiet [12].
Elena Glumas, 63, arrived in Puerto Vallarta with her dogs from the village of Yelapa, which Hurricane Lidia battered with torrential rain in 2023 [14]. "Three years ago we lost everything," she said [17].
What to watch
- Whether the NHC's next advisories keep Simon's center about 15 km offshore, since the track has already shifted once.
- Whether Simon weakens on the Mexican government's schedule or holds Category 3 while moving parallel to the coast.
- How much rain falls on coastal Jalisco if the storm stays nearly stationary.
Clarity's read
What the record supports and how the coverage leans. The claims behind it follow.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap−5
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence60
Claim ledger
Ranked by verification strength, evidence, and original report placement.
- [1]
Hurricane Simon shifted track slightly on Sunday and was forecast to skirt Mexico's west coast without making landfall, while packing heavy rain and severe winds.
- [2]
The cyclone was downgraded one notch to a Category 3 storm on the five-point Saffir-Simpson scale, is moving slowly and remained dangerous.
- [3]
Weather reports had initially forecast a landfall around midday local time (6 p.m. GMT), but data from hurricane hunter aircraft indicated the cyclone was moving more slowly and would only reach about 15 kilometers (nine miles) off the coast of Jalisco state.
- [4]
The U.S. National Hurricane Center's latest Sunday afternoon forecast said the storm "appears to be feeling the effects of the nearby high terrain of the Sierra Madre Mountains as the inner core is brushing up against the Mexican coast."
- [5]
The NHC said: "It is now looking increasingly likely that Simon will avoid making a direct landfall in the short term, though its eastern inner core will likely produce hurricane conditions as the storm continues to move."
- [6]
Even if a direct landfall does not occur, "all the cyclone's cloud bands, or the intense part of the cyclone, will still be affecting" coastal communities, Fabian Vazquez, director of Mexico's meteorological service, told AFP.
ReportedSupportedSource: Fabian Vazquez, director of Mexico's meteorological service, to AFPView cited source - [7]
Vazquez said: "We're going to have very severe effects, especially from wind along the coast," with waves of up to nine meters (30 feet) and exceptionally heavy rainfall.
ReportedSupportedSource: Fabian Vazquez, director of Mexico's meteorological serviceView cited source - [8]
The latest NHC report put Simon's sustained winds at 200 kilometers per hour (125 mph), with the storm moving at just 7 kph (4 miles per hour).
- [9]
The Mexican government said it expected Simon "to gradually weaken over the coming hours," according to its latest report.
- [10]
Boris Comi, a meteorologist with Jalisco's civil protection agency, said Simon has remained "nearly stationary" off Mexico's coast, which means it can "generate more rain over a longer period," which "puts the population at greater risk."
ReportedSupportedSource: Boris Comi, meteorologist, Jalisco civil protection agencyView cited source - [11]
Moving parallel to the coast makes it easier for the storm "to remain at a slightly higher category," Vazquez explained.
ReportedSupportedSource: Fabian Vazquez, director of Mexico's meteorological serviceView cited source - [12]
Simon is the latest in a busy hurricane season in the Pacific, where El Nino is weakening wind shear and allowing storms to gain in strength; El Nino has helped keep the Atlantic hurricane season relatively quiet.
- [13]
On Saturday the Mexican navy evacuated about 100 people by boat from coastal communities threatened by Simon to Puerto Vallarta; five shelters set up in the city had already taken in 95 people by Saturday.
- [14]
Elena Glumas, 63, arrived in Puerto Vallarta with her dogs from the village of Yelapa, which Hurricane Lidia battered with torrential rain in 2023.
- [15]
Puerto Vallarta benefits from its location in a bay and the presence of mountains that reduce the force of cyclones.
- [17]
Glumas said: "Three years ago we lost everything," referring to Hurricane Lidia in 2023.
- [18]
At 7 km/h, a storm covers about 168 km in 24 hours if the speed holds.
Sources
1 independent publisher whose own reporting we read for this story.
- phys.orgHurricane Simon churns off Mexican coast after shift in course
1 article · October 12, 2026
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