Hassett's call for Powell to quit chases one FOMC vote on a committee that hiked unanimously

The Fed lists Powell as one of the 12 voting members of the FOMC ^[6], and the committee raised rates without a dissent on Sept. 16 ^[9]. With a Trump nominee in Powell's seat that day, the vote would have been 11-1 instead of 12-0 ^[1]. Powell was one of the 12 who voted yes ^[2].

Hassett's quarrel is with a decision Warsh made. He told Fox News he disagreed with the hike but respected Kevin Warsh, who replaced Powell as chair in May ^[5], for making it for what he considered the right reasons ^[11]. Warsh and the rest of the committee backed the increase ^[19]. The White House is pressing Powell instead, and Powell is the voter whose exit would give the president a nomination. A departure opens a place on the seven-member Board of Governors that Trump could fill with Senate approval ^[7]. "I think that it's time for him to move on and to respect the independence of the Fed," Hassett said on Fox News' Sunday Morning Futures, according to Bloomberg, when asked whether Powell should resign ^[1][3].

Suppose Powell goes and the Senate confirms a nominee who opposes further hikes. Trump then has a recorded dissent at the next decision, and the outcome changes only if other voters join ^[1]. The jobs data could settle the question before any nominee is seated. Markets have already cut their expectations for an October hike after weak September payrolls, though another increase remains possible later in the year ^[13]. Or the nomination itself could move pricing. The crypto.news account argues that any effect on Bitcoin depends less on Powell leaving than on whether his replacement changes expectations for where rates go ^[18]. That account does not say when Powell's governor term ends. A successor would serve only the remainder of it ^[8].

Fund money drove Bitcoin's rebound after the hike. US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $746.3 million across Sept. 15 and 16, then took in roughly $2.65 billion over the five sessions through Sept. 23 ^[15], about $1.9 billion net across seven sessions ^[4]. Strategy bought 950 BTC for $75.7 million between Sept. 14 and 20 ^[16]. It paid an average of about $79,700 a coin ^[5], and the purchase came to about 3% of the five-day ETF inflow ^[6]. The price later cleared $87,000 ^[14], roughly 9% above Strategy's average ^[7]. HashKey Group senior researcher Tim Sun identified a second Fed hike as a bigger threat to BTC than delays to the CLARITY Act ^[17].

I think the seat matters less to Bitcoin this year than the jobs figures, which have already moved the October odds ^[13]. The case against that view starts with Trump, who has repeatedly favored lower borrowing costs ^[19]. A nominee who shares that preference could shift expectations before ever taking the seat. Two things would prove this view wrong. One is markets pricing out the later-year hike on a nomination announcement while the jobs data stays the same. The other is a confirmed nominee whose dissent picks up a second vote.