Kevin Hassett wants Jerome Powell off the Fed board, a move that would let Trump nominate someone to one of the FOMC's 12 votes. Powell voted for the September hike Hassett says he disagreed with, so the seat is worth one dissent until other voters move.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives70
- Confidence50
US crypto holders on extension must file 2025 returns by October 15 or pay a failure-to-file penalty of 5% of unpaid tax a month. The percentage applies only to tax not paid in April, so the date costs most for filers who underpaid in spring and still cannot document their cost basis.
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence70
Pretty Good Policy for Zcash has registered Divij Pandya as its sole Washington lobbyist on a $750,000 first-year budget. The move takes Zcash's policy work out of developer lab ZODL and puts it in a separate group that looks to Zcash Community Grants for its money.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 25%
- Operator
- Operator 48%
- Investor
- Investor 27%
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives55
- Confidence68
BitGo CEO Mike Belshe says the Senate's 50-49 vote that stalled the CLARITY Act lets single firms keep running an exchange, a brokerage and custody together. He thinks a failure at such a venue could be worse than Lehman, and reviving the bill means finding votes it lacked in September.
Reality
- Evidence40
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives70
- Confidence45
Ten percent of Hill aides polled by Punchbowl News expect a digital-asset tax bill to pass before Dec. 31, 2026. Crypto firms and investors face year-end and 2027 under current rules while the House bill's $10 fee exemption and wash-sale extension wait on a crowded lame-duck Senate.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap0
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence45
Fight Fight Fight LLC will seat the top 185 time-weighted holders of $TRUMP, a token about 97% below its peak, at a November 22 dinner with Donald Trump. Earlier rounds drew leaderboard buying that unwound once invitations went out, so the November 12 snapshot will test how much of the token's bid is for the seat.
Perspective Coverage
5 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 5%
- Operator
- Operator 41%
- Investor
- Investor 54%
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption30
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives85
- Confidence65
SEC estimates its proposed crypto self-custody fallback will cost each adviser that uses it $433,833 a year, and assumes about 823 firms will. After the CLARITY Act's Senate failure, that price helps decide which advisers can hold newly launched tokens for clients.
Perspective Coverage
14 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 13%
- Operator
- Operator 50%
- Investor
- Investor 37%
Reality
- Evidence78
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives60
- Confidence72
SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce, head of the agency's Crypto Task Force, resigns Oct. 2, leaving Paul Atkins and Mark Uyeda as its only two commissioners. Neither her seat nor Caroline Crenshaw's has a nominee, so crypto policy now rests on two Republican votes.
Perspective Coverage
6 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 23%
- Operator
- Operator 45%
- Investor
- Investor 32%
Reality
- Evidence76
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives60
- Confidence74
Citigroup lifted its 12-month Bitcoin target to $113,000 from $82,000 on a forecast of $5 billion in crypto inflows over the next year. A single month like June, when $4.51 billion left spot Bitcoin ETFs, would nearly cancel that forecast.
Perspective Coverage
4 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 7%
- Operator
- Operator 28%
- Investor
- Investor 65%
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption35
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence55
Aztec Labs is bringing back zk.money as a private DAI wallet that caps every transfer at $2,500 and all users' deposits combined at $50,000 a day. Raising either limit means a new contract that each user must opt into. The caps arrive while US law on privacy wallets remains unsettled.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives55
- Confidence62
Coinbase-backed Stand With Crypto named its first three Senate endorsements two weeks after the Clarity Act failed 49-50. The group funds no campaigns itself, so its main Ohio pick depends on PAC money, starting with Fairshake's $30 million pledge for Jon Husted against Sherrod Brown.
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives75
- Confidence65
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan says the Senate's Sept. 15 failure to advance the Clarity Act helped crypto, citing Bitcoin's roughly 8% gain since the vote. Half of his case is the status quo outliving the bill, and the rest is SEC relief that future regulators can change.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence50
US spot Bitcoin ETFs have taken in about $3.1 billion over nine trading days, lifting their year-to-date net inflows to roughly $1 billion. Ether and Zcash funds slipped into small outflows after week-long inflow runs, in sums too small to show money leaving altcoins for Bitcoin.
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption60
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence68
Bitcoin gained about 6% in September as the dollar index rose nearly 2% and the 10-year Treasury yield passed 5%. Most of that gain came from a burst of ETF buying, so allocators who treat bitcoin as a bet against the dollar are really underwriting that flow.
Reality
- Evidence50
- Adoption55
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence50
Spot Bitcoin ETFs took in about $3 billion over eight sessions as oil lifted Treasury yields to 2007 highs, holding Bitcoin near $84,000. Onchain profit-taking adds sellers as this week's inflation and jobs data decide which side gives first.
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption60
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives40
- Confidence65
Korea will open its token securities market in February while the stablecoin bill needed for on-chain settlement still has no committee hearing date. Until stablecoins are linked to the securities ledger, overseas buyers must convert currency and remit through banks to buy Korean tokens.
Reality
- Evidence50
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives60
- Confidence45
Blockchain Association founder Kristin Smith returns as interim CEO on October 17, days after the CLARITY Act failed a 49-50 Senate cloture vote. For investors waiting on a market-structure law, the Senate count matters more to the timetable than the change at the top.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives40
- Confidence55
Hester Peirce exits the SEC on October 2, cutting it to two Republican commissioners with seven seats empty across the SEC and CFTC. Crypto Briefing warns that one recusal could then leave the commission short of a quorum on crypto and market rules.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence65
US spot Bitcoin ETFs drew $2.4 billion in the week to September 25, lifting 2026 net flows to about $934 million from a $5.8 billion deficit in mid-July. That week supplied roughly a third of a $6.7 billion climb, so the recovery is two months old.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 5%
- Operator
- Operator 12%
- Investor
- Investor 83%
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption66
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence68
Fed proposals issued Sept. 24 would set stablecoin rules under the already-enacted GENIUS Act, nine days after the Clarity Act stalled in the Senate. Clarity's unresolved jurisdiction questions still lack a statute, and the SEC's crypto task force leader, Hester Peirce, leaves Oct. 2.
Reality
- Evidence40
- Adoption20
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence45
Earlier coverage
- California bars crypto platforms from listing new meme coins tied to public officials
Invest · September 28, 2026 · 1 publisher
- SEC, CFTC and Fed moved on crypto within 48 hours of the Clarity Act's Senate defeat
Invest · September 26, 2026 · 3 publishers
- CFTC says Cash FX traded less than 1% of the $950 million it raised
Invest · September 27, 2026 · 2 publishers
- CFTC staff let registrants invest customer funds in tokens that carry the original asset's rights
Invest · September 27, 2026 · 2 publishers
- Clarity Act's Senate defeat leaves crypto firms planning on agency rules that elections can undo
Product · September 27, 2026 · 1 publisher
- With CLARITY stalled, crypto market structure shifts to a White House table and a one-man CFTC
Invest · August 16, 2026 · 3 publishers
- Galaxy cuts CLARITY odds to 10%, and crypto's regulatory plan B becomes the plan
Invest · August 17, 2026 · 3 publishers
- With CLARITY stalled, plan compliance against SEC and CFTC staff, not statute
Invest · August 18, 2026 · 3 publishers
- SEC's token on-ramp: a $5M starter round, a $75M tier, and the end of state review
Invest · August 18, 2026 · 7 publishers
- 23 of 40 New Bank Charter Applications Now Involve Digital Assets, OCC Says
Invest · August 19, 2026 · 4 publishers
- Selig says he will write the crypto rules himself if CLARITY stays stalled
Invest · August 20, 2026 · 5 publishers
- Dallas Fed prices frictionless deposits at $580bn to $700bn of lost lending capacity
Invest · August 26, 2026 · 2 publishers
- Public Citizen prices its CLARITY ethics demand at $4.7bn of investor losses
Invest · August 27, 2026 · 3 publishers
- Coinbase partners with Moov to bring stablecoin infrastructure to over 1,000 community banks
Invest · September 10, 2026 · 5 publishers
- Three quarters of a day's Ether short liquidations landed inside one hour
Invest · September 12, 2026 · 2 publishers
- Eleven votes short of cloture, the CLARITY Act sends classification back to agency rulemaking
Build · September 16, 2026 · 2 publishers
- Standard Chartered sets 66x ARB target for 2030, betting on tokenization growth
Invest · September 15, 2026 · 3 publishers
- Senate Republicans rewrite the CLARITY Act to move seven Democrats before Tuesday's vote
Leadership · September 14, 2026 · 2 publishers
- FCA opens crypto authorisation 390 days before the regime takes effect
Invest · September 16, 2026 · 3 publishers
- Circle raised $222 million in Arc token presale ahead of mainnet launch
Invest · September 17, 2026 · 6 publishers
- Kalshi and Coinbase filed near-identical US stock perpetual futures on the same day
Invest · September 19, 2026 · 3 publishers
- Fairshake commits a quarter of its remaining cash to keeping Sherrod Brown out of the Senate
Invest · September 21, 2026 · 5 publishers
- Bitcoin's squeeze high stopped $409 short of the average ETF buyer's cost
Invest · September 21, 2026 · 8 publishers
- Robinhood's August event volume ran 64% above its non-World-Cup pace
Invest · September 21, 2026 · 2 publishers
- CFTC and SEC start writing crypto rules under existing law after the Senate blocks the Clarity Act
Invest · September 24, 2026 · 1 publisher
- The SEC opened a temporary tokenized-stock pathway two days after the Clarity Act stalled
Invest · September 22, 2026 · 1 publisher
- Three digital-asset trust charters clear the OCC on $26 million of working capital
Invest · September 22, 2026 · 1 publisher
- A GENIUS Act carve-out for non-issuers lets Coinbase pay up to 4.5% on USDC
Invest · September 21, 2026 · 1 publisher
- X tells a London court it spent £75,000 catching a £207,384 creator-payout network
Product · September 21, 2026 · 1 publisher
- Armstrong publishes his defense before the Journal publishes its story
Leadership · September 21, 2026 · 1 publisher
- Visa reroutes meme coin card purchases onto crypto merchant codes
Invest · September 20, 2026 · 1 publisher
- A $5.5 trillion tokenization forecast asks the market to grow 324-fold by 2030
Invest · September 19, 2026 · 1 publisher
- SEC's five-year exemption turns tokenized stocks into a shippable US product line
Product · September 17, 2026 · 1 publisher
- The CLARITY Act stalled eleven votes short of a Senate floor debate
Product · September 16, 2026 · 1 publisher
- Democrats price the CLARITY Act's missing seven votes at a divestment trigger
Invest · September 15, 2026 · 1 publisher
- Crypto's federal rulebook stalls 11 votes short of the Senate's 60-vote bar
Product · September 15, 2026 · 1 publisher
- The Clarity Act's 11-vote shortfall hands crypto's rulebook to the SEC and CFTC until 2027
Invest · September 15, 2026 · 1 publisher
- Circle and Coinbase fell more than twice as far as bitcoin after the Senate stalled CLARITY
Invest · September 15, 2026 · 1 publisher
- Eleven votes short, CLARITY hands crypto's rulebook to whichever SEC comes next
Invest · September 15, 2026 · 1 publisher
- Crypto's campaign money buys less in this Senate than it did in spring 2024
Invest · September 15, 2026 · 1 publisher