Bitcoin stalls under its $87,400 high a second time as futures leverage rebuilds

Bitcoin's 1.5% gain ^[7] came against a two-basis-point drop in the 10-year Treasury yield, to 5.25%, still close to its highest since 2002 ^[6]. CoinDesk described the jobs data as easing some pressure on the Federal Reserve to keep raising rates ^[5]. The September gain and the August revision were the same size, so the payroll count through September lands where the first August estimate had put it a month earlier ^[4]. The dollar rose anyway. A Bloomberg gauge of the currency gained 0.4% as the euro fell to its weakest since May 2025 on reports that Spain is preparing for an early election ^[8].

Leverage built faster than price. Between Sept. 30 and Oct. 2, open interest grew 4.3% while bitcoin rose 3.6%, from about $83,500 to $86,500 ^[12][13][3], and the perpetual funding rate more than tripled ^[7]. The base was thin, with open interest at the end of September near its lowest in 12 months ^[15]. CoinDesk wrote that higher funding "raises the cost of holding long positions and can leave leveraged traders more vulnerable to a sudden price reversal" ^[16].

If the 10-year keeps falling, CoinDesk's view is that the $87,400 high comes within reach ^[9], and it names a daily close above $87,000 as the first sign buyers can get through ^[10]. If yields fall but leveraged longs are shaken out first, the past week repeats: a jump on soft data, then a giveback within hours, as on Wednesday ^[4]. Or the break has already come. Cryptopolitan's undated live report has bitcoin above $88,000, up almost 2% over 24 hours, with the 10-year at 5.22% ^[17][20]. That would put the price $600 through the high on a yield 3 basis points below Monday's ^[6]. Its oil price, below $90, is far from the roughly $101.50 Brent figure CoinDesk reported ^[20][11], so the two reports do not describe the same moment.

I think yields are the trigger and positioning decides whether a break holds. Both stalls in the past week followed soft U.S. data ^[4][5], and Monday's came into a futures market where longs were paying more to stay long ^[14]. The view is wrong if bitcoin posts a daily close above $87,000 with the 10-year still at 5.25% ^[10][6], because buyers would then have cleared the high without help from bonds.

Citigroup has raised its 12-month bitcoin target to $113,000 and projects another $5 billion of crypto inflows, according to Cryptopolitan ^[19]. The target is 29% above the eight-month high ^[5].