Kevin Hassett wants Jerome Powell off the Fed board, a move that would let Trump nominate someone to one of the FOMC's 12 votes. Powell voted for the September hike Hassett says he disagreed with, so the seat is worth one dissent until other voters move.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives70
- Confidence50
Donald Trump wants Jerome Powell forced off the Fed board over a renovation audit and sued if he stays, in a seat whose term runs to January 2028. TD Cowen expects the threat to keep Powell there until at least early January 2027, so Trump gets no vacancy to fill.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives58
- Confidence60
Fed inspector general Michael Horowitz found no crime in the $2.5 billion headquarters renovation and blamed poor project management for its cost. His report moves the argument from Powell's testimony to the budget controls the Fed never put in place.
Reality
- Evidence65
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives60
- Confidence60
Judge Ann Aiken ruled that Russell Vought's zero funding request for the CFPB was unconstitutional, in a suit brought by 22 attorneys general. The ruling keeps the bureau's claim on the Fed intact through Fed losses, pending appeal, and leaves the size of each request to the director.
Reality
- Evidence64
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives45
- Confidence58
Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said tariffs, gasoline and AI spending are keeping inflation up after the Fed's first rate increase since mid-2023. Planning for cuts now means betting against the persistence Barkin described.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap0
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence55
Oaktree's co-chairman has wanted a non-activist Fed for years, and the Fed he is endorsing has been open four months, with five task forces, one Jackson Hole speech and a single unanimous hike behind it.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives40
- Confidence50
American Banker's column treats last week's increase in the rate the Fed pays on bank reserves as a move on perceptions. It also says central banks now look like they are following the bond market.
Reality
- Evidence34
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+26
- Incentives62
- Confidence41
Citigroup's Jane Fraser describes a global wave of cyber patching. What the record behind it shows is one meeting in Washington, one frontier model release, and disclosures that AI agents have broken into companies.
Reality
- Evidence36
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+34
- Incentives74
- Confidence42
Forward guidance ended for the first time in 15 years. The increase that followed it arrived with no stated path. The Bank of Korea now has to decide whether to follow a chair who is keeping the path to himself.
Reality
- Evidence38
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives55
- Confidence36
Kevin Warsh's board voted unanimously for a 0.25-point increase with consumer prices up 3.4 percent in August. Navy Federal's chief economist says the Fed signaled two or three more hikes to come.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives55
- Confidence40
At Tuesday's House Financial Services hearing the Treasury Secretary called a liability waiver a "blank check" and said the labs want one while also asking the industry to slow down. He urged both houses to refuse.
Reality
- Evidence64
- Adoption34
- Hype gap+26
- Incentives66
- Confidence57
American Banker's count of more than 8,000 FOMC speeches shows the growth since 1979 came almost entirely from officials other than the chair. This week's expected quarter-point move is the first test of the new approach.
Reality
- Evidence70
- Adoption20
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives45
- Confidence64
Analysts expect a rise in the base rate when the FOMC concludes on Wednesday, against a White House that has lobbied hard for looser conditions. UBS's Paul Donovan says a surprise is what adds a bond risk premium.
Reality
- Evidence44
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+26
- Incentives58
- Confidence42
Headline PCE at 3.7% is the number Warsh quoted, but the six-month annualized run of 4.1% is what decides whether September is one hike or the first of several, and this chair does not plan to say in advance.
Reality
- Evidence24
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives55
- Confidence38
He left his dot off the June projections and publishes rate briefs that barely differ, on the argument that transparency about future policy is no virtue in itself. Rate-sensitive plans now rest on the planner's own forecast.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption66
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives45
- Confidence56
With the benchmark rate at 3.63% and July inflation at 3.4%, the real cost of money is about a quarter of a point, which is why the hike now priced more heavily into October than September is a budgeting problem rather than a curiosity.
Reality
- Evidence28
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives62
- Confidence33
The 3.4% headline that drew three dissents for immediate hikes is carried by nine older months running near 4.4% annualized. Clearing those months out of the window takes nine more monthly prints.
Reality
- Evidence38
- Adoption45
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives55
- Confidence45
Gates now pairs the robot tax with a levy on AI tokens and a revenue case built on stretched budgets. The base he names is already metered and already billed.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption8
- Hype gap+34
- Incentives62
- Confidence71
His fix, a levy on robots and AI tokens, is asked to deter substitution and fund the safety net at once. It cannot do much of both.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+38
- Incentives66
- Confidence40
A 9-3 July vote, the widest in roughly two decades, means Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote sets a distribution rather than a direction, with 30-year yields near 5.2%.
Reality
- Evidence32
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+28
- Incentives62
- Confidence38