Kevin Hassett wants Jerome Powell off the Fed board, a move that would let Trump nominate someone to one of the FOMC's 12 votes. Powell voted for the September hike Hassett says he disagreed with, so the seat is worth one dissent until other voters move.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives70
- Confidence50
Donald Trump wants Jerome Powell forced off the Fed board over a renovation audit and sued if he stays, in a seat whose term runs to January 2028. TD Cowen expects the threat to keep Powell there until at least early January 2027, so Trump gets no vacancy to fill.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives58
- Confidence60
Semafor reports that Scott Bessent warned Bloomberg's editor-in-chief of different treatment from Treasury if a story about his two principal residences ran. It ran, and he has stayed off Bloomberg Television since.
Reality
- Evidence46
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives65
- Confidence52
Cook's response makes intent the whole question. Whether "for cause" carries fraud's intent requirement decides how reachable a Fed governor's vote is, and rates desks hold that answer.
Reality
- Evidence52
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives74
- Confidence55
The White House has started a removal process the Supreme Court declined to define, with Governor Lisa Cook due to respond by Aug. 26. The standard set will outlast this board.
Reality
- Evidence52
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives74
- Confidence55