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The Federal Reserve's rate-setting committee, reported as voting 9-3 on July 29 to hold at 3.50%-3.75% with three dissents for an immediate hike.
No evidence-backed relationships are recorded.
Thirty-year Treasuries near 5.3%, a level unseen since 2007, are tightening conditions without help from the Fed. People who sat beside Kevin Warsh say he will notice and not react.
Reality
Odds on a September Fed hold went from near coin-toss to about 67% in four weeks, and the dollar index slid to 99.5. Any plan carrying a July FX assumption is now stale.
Reality
Foreign investors net bought 8.0698 trillion won of Korean stocks in four days after selling 7.1 trillion won the week before. The round trip says more about flows than fundamentals.
Reality
The FOMC held at 3.50%-3.75%, but a quarter of the voting committee wanted 25 basis points immediately. Portfolios still built around the December 2025 cut are on the wrong side of that argument.
Reality
Headline CPI eased a tenth to 3.4% and core held at 2.5%. Neither number pays for a nine-percent monthly rally; the consensus that the Fed does nothing does.
Reality