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Goldman sees US equity issuance easing to $600bn in 2027 after a record year
Goldman Sachs projects $600 billion of US equity issuance in 2027, with $175 billion from IPOs and $425 billion from follow-ons, convertibles and SPACs. That keeps stock sales near the record the bank expects 2026 to set, with AI spending the reason companies keep coming back to sell.
The Investor · Invest desk
Two bars showing full-year US equity issuance falling from a record $675 billion that Goldman Sachs expects for 2026 to the $600 billion it forecasts for 2027.
| Measure | Value | As of | Claim |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 (Goldman estimate, record) | 675 $bn | 4 | |
| 2027 (Goldman forecast) | 600 $bn | 1 |
What happened
- Goldman expects 2026 to close as a record year for US equity issuance at $675 billion, above the previous high of $540 billion set in 2021.
- Companies have already raised about $431 billion through US equity offerings so far in 2026, a 98 percent jump on the same stretch a year earlier.
- AI-related follow-on offerings have brought in about $65 billion this year, roughly 45 percent of all US follow-on volume.
Why it matters
- decision A company planning to spend more than its business generates has to fund the gap by borrowing or selling shares, and Goldman's forecast assumes those companies keep choosing to sell.
- cost Every follow-on dilutes existing holders, and because AI-linked names supply close to half of that volume, their shareholders absorb most of the dilution.
- constraint Goldman's confidence that the market clears all this rests on buybacks shrinking share counts and demand staying strong, and if either weakens the pipeline gets harder to absorb.
The $600 billion is a step down. [1] It lands about $75 billion below the record Goldman expects 2026 to finish at, roughly 11 percent lower [15], and Goldman still frames 2026 and 2027 together as two of the biggest years the US market has seen. [13]
The spending it is meant to fund is the part to follow. Goldman has Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft and Oracle putting $1.2 trillion into capital projects in 2027. [8] The same five throw off $1.1 trillion of operating cash [8], a $100 billion shortfall to be funded by debt or by selling stock. [16] That $100 billion is only about a sixth of the $600 billion Goldman expects in total [18], so the hyperscaler gap is a small slice of what companies plan to sell. The report does not say how far those five overlap with the AI-linked companies actually running this year's follow-ons. [7]
A second supply story sits behind the pipeline. About $1.7 trillion of shares could become tradable in 2027 as post-IPO lock-ups expire, which Goldman says could be the largest increase in net US equity supply since 2000. [9] At that size the overhang is close to three times the $600 billion of planned issuance, so most of the extra supply next year is old shares being unlocked, with new deals the smaller piece. [17] Whether all of it gets taken up without dragging prices turns on the same assumption the forecast rests on. By Goldman's account the capex-against-cash math works while investors reward AI spending, and gets uncomfortable if the market starts questioning the returns on it. [12] We would watch that assumption, not the $600 billion.
What to watch
- Whether corporate buybacks and investor demand hold up enough to absorb the 2027 supply.
- Whether AI-linked companies keep supplying close to half of US follow-on volume.
- Whether the roughly $1.7 trillion of expiring lock-ups hits the market or gets absorbed quietly.
Clarity's read
What the record supports and how the coverage leans. The claims behind it follow.
Reality
- Evidence40
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence40
Claim ledger
Ranked by verification strength, evidence, and original report placement.
- [1]
In a report dated October 9, 2026, Goldman Sachs strategist Ben Snider forecast that US equity issuance will reach $600 billion in 2027.
ReportedSupportedSource: Goldman Sachs report by strategist Ben Snider, Oct 9, 2026, via cryptobriefing.comView cited source - [2]
Goldman expects $175 billion of the 2027 total to come from initial public offerings.
- [3]
Goldman expects the remaining $425 billion to come from follow-on offerings, convertible securities and special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs).
- [4]
Goldman now expects full-year 2026 US equity issuance to hit a record $675 billion.
- [5]
The previous record for US equity issuance was $540 billion, set in 2021.
- [6]
Companies have raised approximately $431 billion through US equity offerings so far in 2026, a 98% increase compared with the previous year.
- [7]
AI-related follow-on offerings have raised about $65 billion in 2026, accounting for around 45% of total US follow-on issuance this year.
- [8]
Goldman expects Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft and Oracle to spend $1.2 trillion on capital expenditure in 2027, compared with $1.1 trillion of operating cash flow for the group.
- [9]
Approximately $1.7 trillion of shares could become tradable in 2027 as lock-up restrictions expire, which Goldman says could potentially produce the largest increase in net publicly available US equity supply since 2000.
- [10]
Goldman predicts heightened corporate buyback activity and sustained investor demand will help absorb the additional volume, keeping the broader bull market moving even as valuations come under some pressure.
- [11]
Goldman says that when a company plans to spend more than the cash its business generates, it has to find the difference by borrowing or by selling stock.
- [12]
Goldman says the $1.2 trillion capex plan against $1.1 trillion of cash flow works fine while investors reward AI spending, and the funding gap gets more uncomfortable if sentiment shifts and markets start questioning returns on that investment.
- [13]
Goldman says the 2026 and 2027 totals together add up to two of the biggest years for stock sales the US market has seen.
- [14]
Goldman says every follow-on offering adds shares and existing holders own a slightly smaller slice, and with nearly half of follow-on volume coming from AI-linked names, holders of those stocks should watch how often their companies return to the market.
- [15]
The $600 billion 2027 forecast is about $75 billion, or roughly 11%, below the $675 billion Goldman expects for 2026.
- [16]
The hyperscalers' projected $1.2 trillion of 2027 capex exceeds their $1.1 trillion of operating cash flow by $100 billion.
- [17]
The roughly $1.7 trillion of expiring lock-ups is about 2.8 times the $600 billion of planned 2027 issuance.
- [18]
The $100 billion hyperscaler funding gap is about one sixth of the $600 billion Goldman expects in total 2027 issuance.
Sources
1 independent publisher whose own reporting we read for this story.
- cryptobriefing.comGoldman Sachs projects $600 billion in US equity issuance in 2027
1 article · October 11, 2026
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