Skip to content

Topic

Lunar Exploration

Crewed and robotic activity at the Moon, including polar sites and future research stations.

Current stories

science1 publisherOne report

Artemis II astronauts' count of farside impact flashes sets NASA's odds for a Moon base strike

Five impact flashes Artemis II astronauts saw on the farside led NASA to estimate a one-in-10,000-per-decade chance of a similar strike on a Moon base. The crew counted them by eye and with handheld cameras on a flight carrying minimal science payloads, and the count gives planners of the south-pole base a background rate to design against.

Reality

Evidence45
Adoption
Insufficient
Hype gap+30
Incentives50
Confidence50
science6 publishersConfirmed

Starship reaches orbit on its 14th flight, dropping 26 Starlink satellites after losing an engine at liftoff

SpaceX flew Starship to orbit for the first time on September 28, deploying 26 Starlink V3 satellites despite one of the upper stage's six engines going out at liftoff. The flight moves the vehicle closer to the operational heavy-lift launcher NASA and SpaceX are counting on.

Publishers:livescience.comphys.orgscientificamerican.comspace.comspaceflightnow.comtheconversation.com

Perspective Coverage

6 publishers
Builder
Builder 39%
Operator
Operator 36%
Investor
Investor 25%

Reality

Evidence80
Adoption25
Hype gap+20
Incentives65
Confidence75
product12 publishersConfirmed

Starship's first working payload of 26 Starlink V3 satellites reached orbit on a shortened flight

SpaceX's Starship reached orbit for the first time on September 28 and deployed 26 working Starlink V3 satellites, each built to add 1 Tbps of capacity. Buyers can count on that capacity this quarter, while teams hoping to book Starship for their own payloads have one partial orbital flight to judge it by.

Perspective Coverage

12 publishers
Builder
Builder 31%
Operator
Operator 41%
Investor
Investor 28%

Reality

Evidence78
Adoption25
Hype gap+20
Incentives65
Confidence72
science4 publishersConfirmed

A routine data-quality check turned up the solar system's largest fresh crater 15 months late

The 2024 strike that punched a 222-metre hole in the Moon slipped past every telescope on Earth and in orbit. It was found by comparing orbiter images months afterwards, and NASA now wants to know what its debris could hit.

Perspective Coverage

5 publishers
Builder
Builder 33%
Operator
Operator 56%
Investor
Investor 11%

Reality

Evidence78
Adoption
Insufficient
Hype gap+15
Incentives40
Confidence75
science3 publishersConfirmed

A fresh 222-meter lunar crater gives impact modelers a sample of one

McGetchin is the freshest large crater on the Moon's record. Its value to cratering science is that it is unweathered. The once-per-130-years recurrence figure still comes from a size model.

Perspective Coverage

3 publishers
Builder
Builder 48%
Operator
Operator 35%
Investor
Investor 17%

Reality

Evidence74
Adoption32
Hype gap+22
Incentives38
Confidence68