Marvell credits connectivity chips for most of a $2 billion lift in its fiscal 2028 target

Each raise has been larger than the last. The first, from $16.5 billion to $18 billion, added $1.5 billion ^[16]. The second added about $2 billion, and together they put the fiscal 2028 target about 21% above where it started ^[16]. Marvell expects roughly $12 billion of revenue in the current fiscal year, about 45% growth ^[5]. Getting from that base to $20 billion takes about 67% growth in a single year ^[18].

Murphy attributes most of the latest uplift to connectivity products, which Crypto Briefing says include 1.6T optical signal processors and scale-up optics ^[8]. That supports the idea that AI budgets at Marvell's customers now buy networking silicon alongside compute ^[8]. It does less for the idea that the money comes from more places. Marvell's custom silicon programs are with Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft and Meta ^[11], and Crypto Briefing describes the company as heavily exposed to a handful of hyperscaler budgets ^[14]. In my view the spread the sources show is across Marvell's product list, or rather across the parts of an AI build-out that those few buyers pay for. Neither report breaks out connectivity revenue by customer.

The Google agreement is the larger figure and the later one. According to Crypto Briefing, it is multi-year, covers up to 58.97 million shares and could be valued at $120 billion by fiscal 2033 if milestones are met ^[10]. That ceiling is six times the new fiscal 2028 target and sits five fiscal years beyond it ^[20]. With most of the deal's effect placed in fiscal 2029 and later ^[9], the fiscal 2028 number does not depend on those milestones arriving on schedule ^[15].

If Crypto Briefing's reading holds, connectivity carries fiscal 2028 and Google adds a second leg from fiscal 2029 ^[15]. If one of the four hyperscalers slows its AI capital spending, the same publication expects Marvell to feel it quickly ^[14], whichever product line the cut lands on. Or Marvell reaches $20 billion and the shares do little, because the price already reflects it ^[1]. The new target is about 11% above the August figure and about 10% above the analyst consensus ^[17][19]. The shares rose nearly 9% in early trading, after more than tripling this year, according to CNA ^[12].

I think the evidence supports connectivity as the driver of this raise and does not yet show a wider set of buyers. That view would be wrong if one of the four cut its AI spending and Marvell's connectivity sales kept growing anyway. It would also be wrong if Marvell named connectivity customers outside its four custom silicon partners ^[11].