Data-center construction's $85 billion pace leaves building crews exposed to an AI slowdown

Divide the Census pace by 1.73 and the year-earlier figure comes out near $49 billion. That means private builders added roughly $36 billion a year of data-center work in twelve months ^[19]. Data centers now run at nearly twice the office figure, so office construction works out to a little above $42 billion a year ^[20].

The boost to growth shrank even as those checks got bigger, because spending adds to growth only when it beats the previous quarter's ^[4]. A budget that holds steady at a record level adds nothing. Three Federal Reserve Board economists wrote in July that the jobs and productivity evidence is "consistent with a buildout phase" ^[5]. They also found the buildout "is still growing rapidly" as of early 2026 ^[6]. For the $85 billion pace to keep lifting GDP, next August's figure has to come in higher ^[4].

The biggest spenders have little operating surplus left to pay for the next increase. Meta brought in $31.9 billion of cash in its second quarter and spent $31.1 billion on buildings and equipment ^[14]. That left about $0.8 billion, with roughly 97.5% of the cash going into capital spending ^[17]. Meta can still raise spending, but a further step-up would have to be funded from something other than that quarter's surplus ^[17].

The tight construction labour market depends on that one segment. Companies are cutting back on new offices, warehouses and hotels ^[16], while data-center builders hire skilled workers away from other jobs ^[15]. About half of those builders report more pressure to raise pay ^[9]. In August, unemployment among job seekers who last worked in construction was 3.1%, the lowest in the 26 years the figures cover, according to the Associated General Contractors of America's analysis of federal data ^[10].

Kayla Caskey opened a 12-space RV park about 25 minutes from Meta's $27 billion Hyperion campus in Richland Parish, Louisiana, and it filled quickly ^[12]. "It may just be land out there again," she told Fortune in March. "But hopefully, over the next couple of years, it'll pay off while the workers are still here." ^[13]

This can go three ways. In the first, spending keeps accelerating, as the Fed Board economists found it was in early 2026, and the crews stay employed ^[6]. In the second, budgets plateau near the current pace: contractors stay busy while AI's contribution to growth falls toward zero, so the GDP figures show the slowdown well before construction payrolls do ^[4]. In the third, budgets fall, and the cost lands on people well outside tech ^[21]. Quartz did not put a figure on the bank loans behind these projects ^[21].

I think the plateau is the likeliest near-term case, given how little operating cash Meta had left after its second-quarter building ^[17]. The counter-case is the Fed Board finding that the buildout was still growing quickly into 2026 ^[6]. The Census series will settle the question. A reading for next August well above $85 billion would prove the plateau view wrong ^[1].