State supervisors surveyed 330 community banks and found 60.2% rank deposit outflows and lost lending as stablecoins' most or moderately impactful effects. The banks' main answer so far is a push for uniform rules, while a smaller group prepares products of its own.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption4
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives70
- Confidence60
Fed supervision chief Michelle Bowman is scrapping dozens of internal committees and regrouping bank oversight into five regions drawn on state lines. A parallel plan to raise asset thresholds by as much as 50%, on TD Cowen's estimate, will decide more of what banks pay for supervision.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives45
- Confidence50
Fed Governor Christopher Waller said AI agents now account for about half of visits to FRED, a site whose traffic is growing 150% a year. The Fed is adapting its flagship database for the software that now sits between official data and the people who use it.
Reality
- Evidence50
- Adoption55
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives45
- Confidence55
The build is now the largest driver of U.S. private investment growth, and 71% of Americans polled want none of it nearby, which makes entitlement risk rather than capital the thing infrastructure investors have to price.
Perspective Coverage
4 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 8%
- Operator
- Operator 46%
- Investor
- Investor 46%
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption62
- Hype gap+45
- Incentives64
- Confidence60
American Banker's count of more than 8,000 FOMC speeches shows the growth since 1979 came almost entirely from officials other than the chair. This week's expected quarter-point move is the first test of the new approach.
Reality
- Evidence70
- Adoption20
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives45
- Confidence64
Out-of-state buyers took Comerica, Veritex and Cadence, and Huntington went from zero Texas branches to 140 in a year. Incumbents from Frost down to a $55 million bank in Groom say they will bend on price.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption62
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives66
- Confidence55