Blockchain.com has applied for two CFTC licenses to offer US prediction markets and crypto derivatives ahead of an IPO targeting $4 billion to $6 billion. Until the agency rules, buyers of the roughly $500 million raise Crypto Briefing reported would be paying partly for a US business that exists only as a pending application.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption15
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives65
- Confidence60
Blockchain.com is seeking about $500 million from a US listing at a $4 billion to $6 billion valuation, below the $7 billion its 2023 round set. The range opens at roughly the $4 billion that secondary trades already imply, so tokenized stocks and prediction markets have to justify every dollar above it.
Perspective Coverage
5 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 9%
- Operator
- Operator 16%
- Investor
- Investor 75%
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption40
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives50
- Confidence58
Binance Research projects tokenized equities at $349 billion by 2030 in its base case, up from $4.43 billion on-chain as of September 15. Its low and high cases, $61 billion and $987 billion, sit sixteen times apart, so the base case is one guess inside a very wide range.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption18
- Hype gap+45
- Incentives65
- Confidence55
Blockchain.com is seeking about $500 million in a U.S. IPO at a $4 billion to $6 billion valuation, Bloomberg reported, against a $14 billion peak in 2022. Most of that discount was already taken in a private round in 2023.
Reality
- Evidence40
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence45
Proposal 68 passed with 99.4% of a 58% turnout, so the votes against came to about 0.17% of eligible stake. ZetaChain's stated reason is the work of coordinating upstream Cosmos patches across dozens of validators.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 30%
- Operator
- Operator 38%
- Investor
- Investor 32%
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption22
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives60
- Confidence66
CFTC Chair Mike Selig says his agency will write crypto rules under existing law, with two prerules already filed at the White House. Decrypt's newsletter argues the agency can reach leveraged products such as perpetual futures, while spot trading still needs Congress.
Reality
- Evidence40
- Adoption20
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence45
The exchange's Digital Trading Platform has been in the approval process since January, while Blockchain.com's Ondo-powered wallet has gone from about 100 tokenized US stocks and ETFs to more than 430 for non-US users.
Reality
- Evidence36
- Adoption41
- Hype gap+17
- Incentives61
- Confidence43
Proposal 68 passed with 99.4% of a 58% turnout, converting ZETA one for one into a Solana SPL token and ending the Layer 1 that Blockchain.com and Jane Street Capital backed at its January 2024 launch.
Reality
- Evidence48
- Adoption34
- Hype gap+24
- Incentives60
- Confidence45