InvestNot yet confirmed elsewhere1 publisher2 min readPublished
Bitfinex wants single ETF sessions bigger than last week's entire $241 million of Bitcoin inflows
US spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $241.1 million in the week to Oct. 2, about 90% less than a week earlier, Bitfinex analysts said. Their breakout test needs several sessions of at least $340 million each and a daily close above $87,722.
The Investor · Invest desk
What happened
- Bitcoin reclaimed ETF holders' flow-weighted average entry price of $84,320 on Sep. 21, after 233 days below it, in a week when the funds drew about $2.39 billion.
- Within the slower week, BlackRock's IBIT took in $450.2 million while Fidelity's FBTC lost $168 million.
- Bitcoin hit $87,197 on Oct. 2 and fell back toward $84,000, its third rejection below the $87,722 yearly open in two weeks.
- Futures open interest rose $2.1 billion in the 24 hours before the US payrolls release, then shrank $1.5 billion as the price fell.
Why it matters
- constraint BlackRock's IBIT took in enough last week for about 1.3 sessions at Bitfinex's $340 million bar, so a breakout needs Fidelity and the smaller funds buying again.
- exposure At $84,000, the floor of Bitfinex's expected range, ETF holders would sit about $320 below their average entry, so a range-bound week keeps them trading at or just under cost.
- contradiction Bitfinex puts holders' average entry at $84,320 yet says a fall below $82,600 would put them back underwater. The $1,720 gap sets how much room holders have, and the report does not reconcile it.
ETF buyers put in nearly ten times as much money in the week the price got back to their cost (or rather, the week that began on the day it did) as in the week that followed [18][4]. That order of events cuts against a simple breakeven exit. Holders selling to get out flat would show up as withdrawals, and the funds stayed net positive for Sep. 28-Oct. 2 [1].
Bitfinex's analysts offer a different reading. They call breakeven one possible explanation for the slowdown, not proof that buying will stay weak, and say purchases tend to accelerate once ETF holders have a larger profit cushion [12]. At the Oct. 2 high, the cushion over the average entry was about 3.4% [23]. A third explanation sits in the futures market. If any of the ETF demand was the spot leg of trades that capture the gap between spot and futures prices, part of the slowdown had nothing to do with entry price. Bitfinex's Sep. 30 note tied some position closures to thinner returns on those trades, and recorded a 16,075 BTC fall in CME open interest on Sep. 28 as September contracts expired [13].
The weekly total is a net figure. Take IBIT's inflow out of the $241.1 million and the other funds show $209.1 million of net withdrawals [20], with $41.1 million of that coming from funds other than FBTC [21]. Fidelity's fund had taken in $701.6 million the week before [3]. Its flows turned by $869.6 million in a week [22].
Bitfinex's bar of $340 million a session [7] matches a pace buyers had already shown. The nine-session streak that a $148.7 million withdrawal ended on Sep. 30 totalled $3.08 billion [6], or about $342 million a session [19].
The analysts blamed the failed Oct. 2 push on futures activity without enough spot buying behind it [9]. "With macro neither helping nor hurting, any advance has to be paid for by spot buying, and that buying has not yet returned," the team said [10].
I think the evidence shows a pause concentrated outside IBIT, with the funds still net buyers while the price sits near holders' cost. That view is wrong if the funds swing to net withdrawals while Bitcoin trades around the $84,320 average entry [4], the pattern holders selling out at breakeven would leave. "Our upside view is intact, but the timing depends on flows and not on the calendar," the analysts said [11].
What to watch
- Daily closes below $84,000, the largest cost-basis cluster and the level where 75% of supply is in profit; Bitfinex keeps its recovery view there only if ETF flows stay flat or positive and short-term holders keep selling at a profit.
- Sustained trading below $81,300 alongside ETF withdrawals, the combination Bitfinex says would threaten the recovery.
- Whether Fidelity's FBTC returns to inflows; a second week of withdrawals there while IBIT keeps buying would confirm the slowdown is concentrated outside BlackRock's fund.
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- [1]
Bitfinex's report places weekly US spot Bitcoin ETF inflows at $241.1 million for Sep. 28-Oct. 2, leaving the funds net positive despite a sharp drop from the previous week.
ReportedSupportedSource: Bitfinex Alpha report, via crypto.news2 sources— create a free account to open themView cited source - [2]
US spot Bitcoin ETF inflows fell about 90% during the week ending Oct. 2.
ReportedSupportedSource: Bitfinex analysts, via crypto.news2 sources— create a free account to open themView cited source - [3]
Farside Investors data placed spot Bitcoin ETF inflows during Sep. 21-25 at approximately $2.39 billion, led by BlackRock's IBIT with around $1.16 billion, followed by Fidelity's FBTC with $701.6 million and ARK 21Shares' ARKB with $294.7 million.
- [4]
Using Checkonchain's flow-weighted estimate, Bitfinex places ETF investors' average purchase price at $84,320; Bitcoin stayed below it for 233 consecutive days before reclaiming it on Sep. 21.
- [5]
In the Sep. 28-Oct. 2 week, BlackRock's IBIT attracted $450.2 million while Fidelity's FBTC lost $168 million.
- [6]
A $148.7 million withdrawal on Sep. 30 ended a nine-session inflow streak totaling $3.08 billion.
- [7]
For the range to break upward, Bitfinex calls for several ETF sessions attracting at least $340 million each, alongside a daily close above $87,722; under that scenario it identifies $90,000 as the next test.
- [8]
Bitcoin reached $87,197 on Oct. 2 before retreating toward $84,000, its third rejection below the $87,722 yearly opening price in two weeks.
- [9]
Futures open interest rose $2.1 billion in the 24 hours before the US payrolls release, then contracted $1.5 billion as the price fell; Bitfinex attributed the failed advance to futures activity lacking enough spot buying.
- [10]
"With macro neither helping nor hurting, any advance has to be paid for by spot buying, and that buying has not yet returned."
- [11]
"Our upside view is intact, but the timing depends on flows and not on the calendar."
- [12]
Bitfinex analysts treat investors returning to breakeven as one possible explanation for the slowdown, not proof that buying will stay weak, and say purchases tend to accelerate once ETF holders have a larger profit cushion.
- [13]
Bitfinex's Sep. 30 analysis attributed some position closures to weaker returns from trades capturing the spot-futures price difference as futures premiums narrowed, and recorded a 16,075 BTC decline in CME open interest on Sep. 28 as September contracts expired.
- [14]
Bitfinex analysts said a fall below $82,600 would put ETF investors back underwater, potentially slowing inflows and delaying another advance.
- [15]
Bitfinex expects Bitcoin to trade between $84,000 and its $87,722 yearly open while spot buying stays weak; sustained trading below $81,300 with ETF withdrawals would threaten the recovery.
- [16]
Bitfinex analysts identified $84,000 as Bitcoin's largest cost-basis cluster and the price at which 75% of supply is in profit.
- [17]
Even with daily closes below $84,000, Bitfinex would retain its recovery view if ETF flows remain flat or positive and short-term holders continue selling at a profit.
- [18]
Sep. 21-25 inflows were about 9.9 times the Sep. 28-Oct. 2 inflows.
- [19]
The nine-session streak averaged about $342 million a session.
- [20]
Excluding IBIT, the other spot Bitcoin ETFs had combined net withdrawals of $209.1 million in the Sep. 28-Oct. 2 week.
- [21]
Funds other than IBIT and FBTC had combined net withdrawals of $41.1 million that week.
- [22]
FBTC's weekly flow turned by $869.6 million, from $701.6 million in to $168 million out.
- [23]
At the Oct. 2 high of $87,197, the price was about 3.4% above ETF holders' $84,320 average entry.
- [24]
The gap between the $84,320 average entry and the $82,600 underwater threshold is $1,720.
- [25]
At $84,000, the bottom of Bitfinex's expected range, the price would be $320 below the $84,320 average entry.
- [26]
IBIT's week of inflows equals about 1.3 sessions at Bitfinex's $340 million bar.
- [27]
One $340 million session would exceed the entire Sep. 28-Oct. 2 week's inflows by $98.9 million.
Sources
1 independent publisher whose own reporting we read for this story.
- crypto.newsBitcoin’s $90K push stalls as ETF buying slows near breakeven: Bitfinex analysts
1 article · October 6, 2026
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