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CME Group

CME Group runs U.S. futures and options exchanges, trading derivatives in rates, equities, commodities and crypto; its FedWatch tool tracks Fed rate odds.

Known aliases

  • CME
  • CME FedWatch
  • CME Group FedWatch
  • CME Group Inc.
  • FedWatch Tool
  • Чиказька товарна біржа

Relationships

No evidence-backed relationships are recorded.

Current stories

invest3 publishers

With CLARITY stalled, crypto market structure shifts to a White House table and a one-man CFTC

Trump is expected to join crypto, prediction market and AI executives on the 19th, with CME, Nasdaq, ICE and DTCC also invited. The CFTC's new advisory committee meets the next day.

Perspective Coverage

3 publishers
Builder
Builder 8%
Operator
Operator 34%
Investor
Investor 58%

Reality

Evidence50
Adoption
Insufficient
Hype gap+15
Incentives70
Confidence50
invest3 publishers

CME and Kalshi trade insults as prediction-market rules become a federal-state fight

Terry Duffy mocked Kalshi's hot dog contract; Luana Lopes Lara asked about CME's manipulation record. The live question is whether event contracts get exchange-grade oversight, and who writes it.

Perspective Coverage

3 publishers
Builder
Builder 17%
Operator
Operator 48%
Investor
Investor 35%

Reality

Evidence68
Adoption55
Hype gap+10
Incentives72
Confidence66
invest8 publishers

HYPE up 17% on a sentence: Trump says the CFTC wants Hyperliquid onshore, and nothing else

A White House remark about CFTC Chairman Michael Selig repriced HYPE and a Nasdaq treasury stock. No approval, no registration path and no timeline has been put on the record.

Perspective Coverage

8 publishers
Builder
Builder 12%
Operator
Operator 34%
Investor
Investor 54%

Reality

Evidence60
Adoption12
Hype gap+55
Incentives55
Confidence65
invest9 publishers

BitGo absorbs NYDIG's derivatives desk to sell institutions the whole trade lifecycle

Thirty people and a book of institutional trading relationships changed hands on terms nobody disclosed, which leaves the $4.329bn of quarterly revenue BitGo is now trying to put a spread on as the number to read.

Perspective Coverage

9 publishers
Builder
Builder 16%
Operator
Operator 36%
Investor
Investor 48%

Reality

Evidence70
Adoption40
Hype gap+25
Incentives55
Confidence65
invest6 publishers

A 2.9 basis point day carried the 10-year over 5% for the second time since 2007

Brent near $108 and futures pricing a 92.3% chance of a Fed hike took the 10-year to 5.014% intraday. Capital Economics says the United States is not in a fiscal crisis yet because nominal growth still beats debt service.

Perspective Coverage

6 publishers
Builder
Builder 7%
Operator
Operator 21%
Investor
Investor 72%

Reality

Evidence72
Adoption
Insufficient
Hype gap+25
Incentives35
Confidence68
invest3 publishers

Kalshi and Coinbase filed near-identical US stock perpetual futures on the same day

Both venues want cash-settled contracts on the largest US listings, with funding payments in place of an expiry date, and because the underlyings are securities the products need the SEC as well as the CFTC.

Perspective Coverage

3 publishers
Builder
Builder 20%
Operator
Operator 38%
Investor
Investor 42%

Reality

Evidence62
Adoption3
Hype gap+12
Incentives45
Confidence64
invest5 publishers

Canada's Big Six collapse 15 bilateral links into one tokenized deposit rail

Canada's regulator said on September 10 that a tokenized deposit is still just a deposit, and twelve days later all six of the country's largest banks said they would build a shared Canadian-dollar rail together.

Perspective Coverage

5 publishers
Builder
Builder 26%
Operator
Operator 46%
Investor
Investor 28%

Reality

Evidence68
Adoption8
Hype gap+35
Incentives50
Confidence70

Earlier coverage

  1. SGX opens its crypto perpetuals to US desks with $19 million of open interest on the book

    Invest · September 13, 2026 · 1 publisher

  2. Front-end Treasury yields flipped from one cut to four hikes since late February

    Invest · September 12, 2026 · 7 publishers

  3. CME sues the CFTC over a market 21 times its own crypto futures book

    Invest · September 13, 2026 · 1 publisher

  4. Kalshi lists gold and silver perpetuals on the CFTC's first non-crypto clearance

    Invest · September 12, 2026 · 1 publisher

  5. Anthropic and OpenAI queue $1.98 trillion of valuation behind SpaceX's $370 million rotation

    Invest · September 12, 2026 · 1 publisher

  6. Kalshi's 60 stock and ETF perpetuals need both the CFTC and the SEC to say yes

    Invest · September 11, 2026 · 1 publisher

  7. Bitcoin's rebound ran three times the S&P's on an in-line 3.4% CPI print

    Invest · September 11, 2026 · 1 publisher

  8. Kalshi lines up sixty stock perps that would keep trading after Nasdaq closes

    Invest · September 11, 2026 · 1 publisher

  9. Quantum's pure plays trail their own sector ETF by up to 70 points this year

    Invest · September 10, 2026 · 1 publisher

  10. A $1,700 liquidity band will decide Bitcoin's $80,000 support before the Fed does

    Invest · September 7, 2026 · 1 publisher

  11. Waller's 3.05% inflation trend takes 13 points out of the market's hike odds

    Invest · September 3, 2026 · 1 publisher

  12. Ondo tells the SEC and CFTC that stock perps are already legal

    Invest · September 3, 2026 · 1 publisher

  13. Arkham traces $30M of North Korean bitcoin through the exchange Washington wants inside its perimeter

    Invest · September 1, 2026 · 1 publisher

  14. Traders rebuilt a September Fed hike from 41.4% to nearly 60% in one week

    Invest · September 1, 2026 · 1 publisher

  15. Hyperliquid's policy arm files to make perpetuals the CFTC's innovation centerpiece

    Invest · August 27, 2026 · 1 publisher

  16. Hyperliquid's allies ask the CFTC to let crude hedge itself on a Sunday

    Invest · August 26, 2026 · 1 publisher

  17. Google's bank agent can read FactSet. The licence, not the model, decides how much.

    Invest · August 26, 2026 · 1 publisher

  18. CME lists GPU futures on Oct. 5; the CFTC's comment window closes about two weeks later

    Invest · August 25, 2026 · 2 publishers

  19. Hourly power futures got an FCM door on August 10, and that is the part that counts

    Leadership · August 18, 2026 · 1 publisher

  20. Bitcoin's close under the 200-week line is a sizing input, not a forecast

    Invest · August 17, 2026 · 2 publishers

  21. Touchmark opens a forwards market for tokens because finance cannot forecast them

    Invest · August 15, 2026 · 1 publisher