other
Party to the attacks preceding the closure and to the mid-June memorandum of understanding; described as showing new insulation from the shock.
No evidence-backed relationships are recorded.
July exports rose 23.2% year on year and chipmaking equipment shipments jumped 49.1%. Total export volume grew 5.2%. The difference is price and currency.
Reality
The 60-day cease-fire window closed on the 16th. Washington is weighing secondary sanctions on Chinese buyers of Iranian crude while US pump prices run 29% above last year, three months from the midterms.
Reality
Erdogan wants the strait reopened and has signed a 750,000 b/d pipeline deal in case it isn't. Tehran's condition is war damages, which is a budget question, not a military one.
Reality
A 3.3% annualized Q1 contraction has reversed, and the IMF, OECD and Bank of Israel now see full-year 2026 growth between 3.3% and 3.8%. That range is the number to hold vendors against.
Reality
Four dated IRGC episodes since April, a collapsed US-Iran safe-passage memorandum, and fresh fire toward the strait argue for a standing premium rather than a series of one-off scares.
Reality
Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930 has sat essentially unused for most of a century. Its revival will outlast whatever deal lands before the August 19 deadline.
Reality
A draft Iranian law would charge 7% of cargo value to transit the strait and fine refusers 20%. That makes it an insurance and charter-contract problem before it is a military one.
Reality
Oversupply, bypass pipelines and full storage absorbed what the IEA called the largest oil supply disruption on record. Those cushions are thinner now, and a second phase lands on a drawn-down system.
Reality