Iran moves rapid-reaction and artillery units to four borders and the Makran coast

The line in all of this that touches shipping is Oman's. Ebrahim Azizi, chairman of the National Security Committee of Iran's parliament, said Oman's delay, under US influence, of an agreement on the Strait of Hormuz would harm both Oman and regional security ^[10]. He addressed the Gulf states directly. "It would be better for the countries on the southern shore of the Persian Gulf to recognize that they must cooperate and coordinate with the Islamic Republic," he said ^[11].

The army's account of itself is narrower than the headquarters' politics. "Special forces, rapid reaction units, mechanized units and artillery units are conducting operations in border areas with the support they need," Iranian Army Commander Ali Jahanshahi said ^[4]. Four unit types in one sentence, and five zones in the army's list, of which the Makran coast is the only sea frontage ^[1][2]. The first half of that sentence describes formations. "With the support they need" describes logistics, and logistics is the half a deployment either demonstrates or fails to.

The threat to American forces is collective and, in the headquarters' own wording, unbounded. If the United States "makes any mistake against Iran, all U.S. bases and assets in the region will become targets of continuous, effective and painful attacks, without any limits or considerations," the statement said ^[5]. Two of the three warnings carried in that statement address regional states, and one addresses Washington ^[3].

Azizi also put inspection access into play. "If Iran's membership in the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) no longer serves its interests, we will reconsider whether to remain a party to it," he said, warning that "if the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) continues its one-sided behavior, it will face a serious and regrettable response" ^[8]. A nuclear file is verified through that access.

In my view this is pressure aimed at the Gulf capitals that host American forces, not notice served on Washington, and the evidence is in who gets addressed: the command warned regional countries not to take part ^[1], told them they would be regarded as accomplices ^[6], and reserved one warning for the United States ^[3]. The counter-thesis is the simpler one. A general staff that expects to fight moves special forces, mechanized and artillery units to its borders first ^[3] and talks about negotiations afterwards, and Azizi's judgement that resuming talks with the United States would be pointless ^[7] is then a description of the situation. Duration separates the two. If the units stay in place after an Omani agreement is signed, the deployment was leverage on the hosts; if the Omani channel closes while reinforcement continues, "pointless" was meant literally.