Company
Research and publishing outfit that built the proprietary AI economy model and published The State of the AI Economy report.
Exponential View says GLP-1 sales reached $76 billion in 2025, ahead of its own $63 billion estimate for generative AI. The $13 billion lead rests on that estimate, and the retention studies the piece cites show heavy attrition.
Reality
Exponential View puts annualized AI revenue at $276bn, enough to cover 182% of the yearly cost of data-center capital already in service. The tally finds today's build covered and the hurdle rising with every dollar committed from here.
Reality
Azeem Azhar counted the raised hands himself, in a self-selected room of 250 IT executives at a Las Vegas conference. Every firm in it told him AI spending rises next year. Budgets have to answer for that.
Reality
The gate on recursive self-improvement is how long one loop takes, and experiments, training runs and new chips all take real time. That makes capability curves fast but bounded, which changes what you sequence first.
Reality
Exponential View's bottom-up model puts trailing generative AI sales at $110 billion, with the latest month annualising above $175 billion. The exclusions decide whether your budget is comparable.
Reality