The World Weather Attribution analysis of the August 26 collapse that killed more than 1,300 people finds thinning glaciers and thawing permafrost weakened the slope over decades, without saying warming caused the failure.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives40
- Confidence58
Carbon Impacts Tracer, a new open-source tool, links Woodside's Browse gas project to an extra week of dangerous heat a year for almost 200,000 people. The figure puts a count on harm that project backers have long called too small to trace to any one project.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives70
- Confidence40
A PLOS Climate study subtracts the top producers' emissions through 2024 from two runs of the FaIR model and finds their contribution to global temperature is about the same whether future emissions fall or keep climbing.
Reality
- Evidence56
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap−10
- Incentives58
- Confidence44
Attribution science usually asks what two centuries of fossil fuel burning did to a heat wave. A Stanford group asked what the ten years since the Paris Agreement did, and found a measurable answer in Europe's worst recent heat.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+8
- Incentives55
- Confidence55
The estimate comes from differencing the observed West against a simulated one where the largest fossil fuel and cement producers stopped emitting in 1950. That is the defendant-shaped number water litigation runs on.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives40
- Confidence48
The Nature team compared more than 50,000 malaria surveys against a modelled world without human-caused warming. Its continental net of about one excess case per 1,000 children since 1901 hides two regional numbers of opposite sign.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+8
- Incentives38
- Confidence55
A VUB-led study in Science Advances splits attributable humid heat by age band. The gap between children and people in their 60s is part risk and part demography.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+28
- Incentives62
- Confidence52
Thin snow killed roughly 100 of more than 160 yellow-bellied marmots at Gothic, Colorado. Federal cuts hit the same study, so its funding plan is now a Fat Bear Week imitation.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption32
- Hype gap+14
- Incentives72
- Confidence48