UVA's new capitalism index records a gradual worldwide decline from 2009 to 2025

The release describes the worldwide trend only as an "incremental reduction" in capitalist conditions ^[3]. The country figures come in points. Sierra Leone fell 23.9 and Venezuela 23.2 since 2009 ^[8], on a scale that runs from 1 to 100 ^[6]. Sierra Leone's drop is nearly a quarter of that range ^[19]. Spread over 16 years of data, it averages about 1.5 points a year ^[20]. A global figure on the same scale would let a reader weigh the worldwide slide against those national swings, and against whatever error comes with blending more than 200 source datasets into one score ^[1].

The case studies are the release's main evidence that the instrument works, and I think they are a sensible first check. An index like this ought to move when something large and well documented happens. In China, the case study describes a new-business surge in 2019 tied to a foreign investment law ^[10]. Lebanon's banking-stability score tracks the failure of its financial system in real time ^[11]. The Gambia case ties property rights to the fall of a dictator in 2017 ^[12]. Shocks of that size are the easy test for a composite measure, and a slow 16-year drift like the global one is the harder test ^[3].

The other two case studies show what the pillar breakdown adds to a headline number. Germany is a wealthy economy with a structurally weak banking score, and India's GDP growth conceals deepening capital account restrictions ^[13]. "If you ask anyone what capitalism is, the answers are all different, and that makes it hard to argue about the validity or value of it," said Scott Miller, an assistant professor at UVA Darden, director of the Democracy and Capitalism Lab and the project's lead author ^[14]. On China, he said the index shows "surprisingly strong business conditions but increasingly restricted flow of goods and capital" ^[16]. "This is not just an academic project," Miller said. "The GCI can have real-world implications for policymakers and business leaders in terms of understanding the upside and downside of decisions." ^[15]

The release also sorts countries into four archetypes ^[17]. Entrepreneurial economies, led by Switzerland, Hong Kong and the U.S., are strong in new business formation and market policies and weaker on property rights and the free flow of goods and capital ^[17]. Corporate economies are strong in capital markets and banking but lag on competition, freedom in the labor market, market policy and the creation of new businesses. Japan and South Korea score highest in that group ^[18]. Nordic countries rank high, although they are also associated with high levels of social support ^[9].