benchmark
CME Group's FedWatch tool estimates the probability of Federal Reserve interest rate decisions by analyzing prices of 30-day fed funds futures contracts.
No evidence-backed relationships are recorded.
France's bond spread over Bunds touched about 150 basis points on Friday, the most since 2011, and the euro fell to $1.1118 on Monday, a 17-month low. Holders of unhedged euro assets now carry French fiscal risk through the currency as well as through the bonds.
Reality
Bitcoin briefly crossed $87,000 on Oct. 2 after US employers added just 29,000 jobs in September against about 90,000 expected. Traders added roughly $2.3 billion of futures positions during the climb, so more leverage now rides on the Fed's Oct. 28 decision.
Perspective Coverage
13 publishersReality
Bitcoin rose to $86,757 after August core PCE came in at 3.0% against 3.3% expected and October hold odds jumped to 74% from 35.8%. The year's sub-$1 billion ETF total understates the buying, because a strong third quarter first had to cover first-half redemptions.
Reality
US 10-year Treasury yields rose to 5.30% on Wednesday, their highest since 2002, even though inflation came in cooler. Whatever drove it, growth or government debt, a cash-flow model that counted on cooling inflation to lower its discount rate now needs a higher one.
Perspective Coverage
4 publishersReality
Grayscale's Zcash ETF recorded a $30.25 million net outflow on Sept. 30, leaving cumulative net inflows near $268 million. With ZEC 21% below its late-September peak, the next flow prints will show whether the fund's buyers stay with the coin after its run.
Reality
Bitcoin rose 0.9% to $84,376 after August core PCE came in at 3.0%, below the 3.3% economists expected. Lower odds of an October Fed hike did little for a market whose September rally ran on ETF inflows that have since faded.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishersReality
Long-dated Treasury yields have hit 21st-century highs on federal deficits, hyperscaler bond sales and oil near $100, even as August inflation came in soft. Some market participants cited by Seoul Economic Daily allow for a 6% 30-year yield, on debt supply the Fed's October meeting does not touch.
Reality
Spot Bitcoin ETFs took in about $3 billion over eight sessions as oil lifted Treasury yields to 2007 highs, holding Bitcoin near $84,000. Onchain profit-taking adds sellers as this week's inflation and jobs data decide which side gives first.
Reality
Bitcoin fell to $82,568 on Monday, about 4% under the $86,000 average cost of US spot-ETF holders, two days before its September and third-quarter closes. Corporate treasuries paid $80,500 on average, so Wednesday's close sets whether each group ends the quarter in profit or underwater.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishersReality
Bitcoin traded near $83,000, down about 1.8% in 24 hours, after Trump rejected Iran's seven-day ceasefire plan and Brent crude climbed back above $100 a barrel. Futures now price a 64% chance of an October 28 Fed hike, a rough setup for a non-yielding asset.
Reality
Spending and Michigan sentiment both slipped, pushing odds of a Fed hold to 71.2%. For rate-sensitive books, the print that removes hike risk adds credit risk.
Perspective Coverage
4 publishersReality
July CPI at 0.1% and flat PPI took the near-term rate scare off the table. What is left holding up records above 7,800 is a bet on how long GPUs stay useful.
Perspective Coverage
5 publishersReality
Meta rose about 13% and Microsoft more than 4% in a week that took the 10-year Treasury yield past 5.2% and October Fed hike odds to 66%. Both moved on their own company news, and at 23 times forward earnings Meta now yields less than the Treasury.
Reality
Speculators built a record $51.4 billion net dollar long by late July, weeks before G5 currency option volatility sank to a post-COVID low of 5.33. Currency protection got cheaper even as year-end rate bets climbed from 3.05% to above 4%.
Reality
Brent topped $105 and the 10-year touched 4.902 per cent in the same session. The cash operation blamed for the yield move would cover about 1.5 basis points of annual interest on the debt it was meant to steady.
Reality
The Fed took its target range to 3.75-4.00% on September 16 and raised its median PCE forecast to 3.7% in the same document, so the real cost of holding a metal that pays no coupon moved by about a sixth of a point.
Perspective Coverage
17 publishersReality
The 10-year traded at 5.039% on the 15th, its highest since July 2007, after Saudi Arabia closed an alternative crude shipping route and oil passed $100. Eighty-five percent of the economists Reuters polled now expect a September Fed hike.
Reality
CME FedWatch puts 88.5% on a quarter-point hike to 3.75% after CPI printed 3.4%. The 11.5% left over is a hold, and UBS's Paul Donovan says that outcome would put a risk premium into bond pricing. Trump wants the hold.
Reality
The KOSPI closed at 6,909.91 on the 11th, back below 7,000 but still up 3.33% for the week, and the memory names that led the advance fell again in New York on a day Brent dropped 2.81%.
Reality
CME FedWatch put the odds of an increase at the Sept. 16 meeting near 90% after August's core reading, and Capital Economics expects two further quarter-point moves by March 2027. The August data predates $100 oil.
Reality
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