Myriad traders price Bitcoin's $90,000 October at 48% against a 5.29% Treasury yield

If this October only matched the median October since 2013, a 14.71% gain according to CoinGlass ^[16], Bitcoin would finish the month near $96,150 ^[2]. The Myriad market asks only whether Bitcoin trades at $90,000 at some point in October ^[3], so a spike that fades before month-end still counts. The rest of the ladder thins quickly: 90% for $85,000, 1.4% away, and 70% for $87,500, 4.4% away ^[14][3]. That middle rung sits just above the $87,354.33 swing high Bitcoin has already pulled back from ^[18]. Further out, traders give 7% to a new all-time high before 2027, a move of roughly 50% ^[4]. Myriad is built by Dastan, Decrypt's parent company ^[15], and Decrypt did not report how much money sits behind these odds.

The seasonal record is also thinner than its headline. The mean October gain since 2013 is 19.92%, 5.2 points above the median ^[16][9], so a handful of large years lifts the average. October 2025 closed down 3.69%, only the third red October in that run ^[17].

The fund flows give the bearish case less than the outflow figure suggests. The nine-day inflow streak that ended Sept. 29 averaged roughly $342 million a day ^[4]. The Sept. 30 outflow was 4.8% of the streak, and smaller than half of one average inflow day ^[4]. September's buyers have not sold in any size. They are not adding either: this week stands at a net outflow of $51.42 million so far, according to Decrypt's ETF tracker ^[22].

The case against October rests on rates. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation "remains elevated" ^[6], and the Fed's median projection points to one more 25-basis-point hike this year ^[7]. The 10-year's September close sits 1.29 points above the top of the policy range ^[7], even though August PCE inflation came in at 3.4% against 3.7% expected ^[10]. The S&P 500 and Dow both posted monthly losses in September as yields climbed ^[21]. Bitcoin pays no yield, and traders tend to treat rising Treasury rates as direct competition ^[9].

If inflation keeps coming in below forecasts, as August PCE did, the seasonal pattern has room to work. A firmer signal for that second hike would more likely pin the coin between the 90% and 70% rungs. The third path is September's ETF money leaving in a run of days like Sept. 30.

I think 48% is a fair to slightly cheap price for a touch of $90,000. The trend gauges are strong: the ADX reads 41.5, well above the 25 line that confirms a trend, and the RSI is 61.8, short of the 70 level where profit-taking usually starts ^[19]. The counter-case is that Bitcoin has already stalled once just below the $87,500 rung ^[18][14], and a strong trend reading describes a move that has already happened. I would drop the view on seven more trading days at the Sept. 30 pace, enough to pull about $1.04 billion, a third of what the streak brought in ^[10].