Mistral limits Timestral weights to companies with no more than $20M in monthly revenue

The gate sits on the company. DEV Community quotes the license file as saying a user is "not authorized to exercise any rights under this license if the global consolidated monthly revenue of your company" "exceeds $20 million (or its equivalent in another currency) for the preceding month." ^[9] The same post says the test reaches an employer's revenue too ^[9]. Held flat, $20 million a month is $240 million a year ^[17]. A team near that line would need a revenue forecast to know whether it may run the forecasting model.

The setup behind the CPU figure is narrow. Mistral timed one day ahead from three weeks of 15-minute history on a "standard server CPU with 8 threads" ^[2]. That history is 2,016 steps ^[14], about 6% of the 32,768 past steps the 209M model can read ^[15]. We'd expect a pipeline that feeds the model its full context to run slower than 140 ms.

The benchmark lead is small. On GIFT-Eval the 209M model scores a MASE of 0.658 against 0.661 for t0-gamma, a gap of 0.003 ^[16]. On fev-bench it posts 50.39 against 49.42 ^[4]. Mistral says each result comes from a single checkpoint with no ensembling, and that most training data is synthetic, so "nothing we backtest was seen during pre-training" ^[19]. For a 0.003 gap to hold on your data, your series would have to resemble the benchmark mix, and your error metric would have to track MASE.

Teams under the cap have a cheaper option in the smaller checkpoints. Mistral says the 123M model comes within 0.2% of the 209M score at three quarters of its latency ^[3]. It also says its 28M model beats Chronos-2, about four times larger, on GIFT-Eval and TIME ^[7]. On GIFT-Eval MASE the 28M scores 0.678 against 0.698 for Chronos-2 ^[6].