Polymarket odds for CLARITY Act passage rose about five points after Senate draft added 114 Democratic provisions

Two bodies have already passed versions of this bill at rates above the 60 percent that cloture requires. The House cleared H.R. 3633 on July 17, 2025 by 294 to 134, which is 68.7 percent of the 428 votes cast ^[8][1]. The Senate Banking Committee advanced it on May 14, 2026 by 15 to 9, or 62.5 percent of 24 ^[9][2]. Neither margin transfers to the floor. Cloture is a count of all 100 senators, and with Republicans at 53, seven of the other 47 have to cross, which is 14.9 percent of the seats Republicans do not hold ^[7][3].

Polymarket's contract on 2026 passage sat in the mid-20s for most of the summer and moved to roughly 30 percent once the September 10 draft appeared ^[3]. Take the round numbers, and the entire concession package bought about five points, which across 114 provisions works out to four hundredths of a point each ^[4]. Cryptobriefing's later piece prices the same question at 28.5 percent YES ^[15], 1.5 points below its own earlier figure ^[8].

At 28.5 percent the market is roughly 2.5 to 1 against a signature this year ^[5], and cryptobriefing reads 30 percent as a 70 percent chance the bill does not become law in 2026 ^[10]. A failed cloture vote would not necessarily kill the text. By that publication's account, another attempt could take months and could slip into 2027 and a new congressional session, where the legislative slate is wiped clean ^[11]. Fourteen months have already passed since the House vote ^[6].

The change a trading venue reads first is jurisdictional: non-decentralized trading protocols would have to register with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission ^[4]. The SEC has sued major exchanges and argued that most tokens qualify as securities, and cryptobriefing calls the transfer of primary oversight over non-decentralized platforms to the CFTC a meaningful power shift between the two agencies ^[12]. The bill's stated purpose is to set federal rules for digital assets and clarify which of the two has jurisdiction ^[17].

I think the five-point move prices the concessions as evidence of effort, not as a headcount. Neither report names a Democrat who has committed to vote for cloture, and 120 accepted demands are as consistent with six converts as with ten; some of the provisions reportedly concern consumer protections and ethics requirements ^[13][14]. The counter-thesis is that the whip count is done and simply not published, in which case the 70 percent the market puts on failure this year is the wrong side.