Ten percent of Hill aides polled by Punchbowl News expect a digital-asset tax bill to pass before Dec. 31, 2026. Crypto firms and investors face year-end and 2027 under current rules while the House bill's $10 fee exemption and wash-sale extension wait on a crowded lame-duck Senate.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap0
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence45
Crypto's 635-page Clarity Act stalled in the Senate with no realistic path back before year-end, Cato's Ryan Chan-Wei wrote. He blames an ethics dispute over conflicts at the highest levels of government, and that dispute will meet whatever bill the next Congress writes.
Perspective Coverage
18 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 17%
- Operator
- Operator 39%
- Investor
- Investor 44%
Reality
- Evidence70
- Adoption20
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives65
- Confidence65
Three federal agencies moved on crypto rules within 48 hours of the Senate's 49-50 vote that stalled the Clarity Act. Only the stablecoin rules sit on a statute, so businesses using the SEC and CFTC relief hold permissions a later administration can withdraw.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 17%
- Operator
- Operator 36%
- Investor
- Investor 47%
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives60
- Confidence60
A bill that began as a security-or-commodity question now includes a standby power over stablecoin rewards if community banks start losing deposits. The Treasury secretary decides when it fires.
Perspective Coverage
12 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 27%
- Operator
- Operator 35%
- Investor
- Investor 38%
Reality
- Evidence68
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives75
- Confidence62
Senate Republicans rewrote the CLARITY Act on Sunday night and put their concessions into the text. Two of them add supervision over exchanges and stablecoin issuers, and one is relief for developers.
Reality
- Evidence66
- Adoption3
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives62
- Confidence70
The Senate voted 50-49 against the Clarity Act on September 15, so the federal digital-asset framework stays unwritten. The fight that sank it was over ethics language tied to the president's own crypto holdings.
Reality
- Evidence64
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives78
- Confidence58
Cloture failed with 49 of the 60 votes needed. The two-agency perimeter the industry spent hundreds of millions to buy now falls to whatever the SEC and CFTC write on their own. Atkins still wants a statute.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption66
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives74
- Confidence57
The Senate left the Clarity Act 11 votes short of the 60 needed on Tuesday. Bitcoin fell 4.5%, while Coinbase and Circle, the two firms that would have gained a primary regulator, fell 10.10% and 11.4%.
Reality
- Evidence56
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives78
- Confidence54
Eight trade groups told Senate leaders the bill's rewards carve-outs would let stablecoins pay interest by another name. The White House's own April study puts the lending at stake at $2.1 billion, or 0.02%.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption38
- Hype gap+32
- Incentives80
- Confidence65
The new text defines a non-decentralized trading protocol by who can alter it, then leaves registration, conduct and Bank Secrecy Act questions to rules three agencies have not written. A procedural vote is set for Sept. 15.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives72
- Confidence52
Banks want rewards on stablecoin balances restricted; the platforms behind USDC and USDT need them. A mid-September Senate procedural vote is the next read on who is winning.
Reality
- Evidence44
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+33
- Incentives68
- Confidence41
Moreno and Lummis have cosponsored the Credit Card Competition Act, joining Durbin, Marshall, Welch and King. The bill would make banks above $100B in assets run two unaffiliated networks on credit cards.
Reality
- Evidence32
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+34
- Incentives78
- Confidence38