project
Prediction-market analysis product promoted at the end of both UKMTO incident briefs and supplying the quoted traffic-normalization odds.
The FOMC held at 3.50%-3.75%, but a quarter of the voting committee wanted 25 basis points immediately. Portfolios still built around the December 2025 cut are on the wrong side of that argument.
Reality
Banks want rewards on stablecoin balances restricted; the platforms behind USDC and USDT need them. A mid-September Senate procedural vote is the next read on who is winning.
Reality
The FT judged Beijing's energy strategy vindicated by the Iran conflict, per a secondary summary. The evidence on offer is one import number and a falling Brent price.
Reality
US emergency crude stocks are at their lowest since 1983, according to NPR. Prediction markets moved the odds of a record crude price by December 31 from 10% to 12.5%.
Reality
A draft Iranian law would charge 7% of cargo value to transit the strait and fine refusers 20%. That makes it an insurance and charter-contract problem before it is a military one.
Reality