Tech billionaires have outraised backers of California's billionaire tax about ten to one
Tech billionaires have raised more than $340m to defeat California's Proposition 40, a one-time 5% tax on billionaires. Californians vote in early November, and two countermeasures on the same ballot can block the tax even if Prop 40 passes.
The Board Room · Leadership desk
Tech billionaires have raised more than $340m to fight California's wealth tax. The yes on 40 campaign has raised just shy of $33m. Opponents spent at least $21.2m in the first 19 days of September, per the most recent campaign filings.
| Figure | Value | Note | Claim |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raised by tech billionaires to fight the wealth tax | $340m more than | 1 | |
| Raised by the yes on 40 campaign | $33m just shy of | 6 | |
| Spent by opponents in first 19 days of September | $21.2m at least | per the most recent campaign filings | 2 |
What happened
- Sergey Brin has given at least $102m to the no campaign and Eric Schmidt more than $42m, the two largest donors, according to campaign finance filings.
- The yes on 40 campaign has raised just under $33m, mostly from the healthcare union that sponsors the measure.
- A late-September University of California poll found 45% of voters likely to vote yes on Prop 40 and 42% likely to vote no.
- The no campaign's television, digital and streaming ad features René Bravo, president of the California Medical Association, disputing that the tax would improve healthcare.
Why it matters
- Who's exposed exposure The levy falls most directly on the tech billionaires funding the no campaign. Founders and executives below billionaire status are outside its scope as reported.
- What it limits constraint A 3-point lead on Prop 40 alone is not the probability that the tax takes effect, because Props 41 and 42 can override a yes majority.
- What it sets up precedent Both camps cast the tax as a possible first step toward wealth taxes in other states, so the result will likely be cited in debates beyond California.
The spending gap is wide. Opposition donors have raised more than $340m [1], roughly ten times the total of the yes campaign [20]. The $1m-a-day pace traces to filings covering the first 19 days of September, when the opposition spent at least $21.2m [2], about $1.12m a day [17]. Brin and Schmidt together account for at least $144m of the money [21].
Prop 40 still leads, but by less. The late-September poll puts the margin at 3 points [18], and the Guardian reports a 7% lead a month earlier [8], a narrowing of about 4 points [19]. The Guardian places that narrowing alongside the opposition's heavier spending. A correlation across a few weeks is all the record shows.
Two countermeasures on the same ballot complicate the poll. Prop 41 directly targets the billionaire tax, and Prop 42 is a general proposal to protect individuals from certain new taxes [10]. "Props 41 and 42 have poison pills in them to destroy 40," said David McCuan, a political science professor at Sonoma State University who studies ballot measures [11]. The Guardian reported no polling on either, so we do not know yet how likely it is that a passing Prop 40 takes effect.
Opposition extends beyond donors. Both the Democratic and Republican candidates for governor oppose the measure, as does Planned Parenthood Affiliates of California, while the state's major unions, Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Ro Khanna back it [13]. Some Democrats reject it because it is a one-time levy and the bulk of it would fund only certain healthcare programs [15].
This quarter's decision is how much planning to do before the early-November vote [4]. Next quarter's consequence arises only if Prop 40 passes and draws more yes votes than both countermeasures [9], at which point a one-time 5% levy applies to the state's billionaires [3].
What to watch
- The next campaign finance filings, to see whether the no campaign's spending stays above $1m a day through the vote.
- Any public poll on Props 41 and 42, since the record so far covers only Prop 40.
- The next University of California poll, to see whether Prop 40's 3-point lead narrows further.
Clarity's read
What the record supports and how the coverage leans. The claims behind it follow.
Reality
- Evidence68
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap
- Not scored
- Incentives75
- Confidence65
Claim ledger
Ranked by verification strength, evidence, and original report placement.
- [1]
Tech billionaires have raised more than $340m to fight a wealth tax in California, and the campaign they fund is spending more than $1m a day to defeat the measure, according to state financial disclosures.
- [2]
During the first 19 days of September, according to the most recent campaign filings, the opposition campaign spent at least $21.2m to fight the billionaire tax.
- [3]
If passed, Proposition 40 would require a one-time 5% tax on the state's billionaires, with proceeds mostly funding healthcare programs, along with some education and food assistance.
- [4]
Californians will vote on Proposition 40 in early November.
- [5]
Google co-founder Sergey Brin has contributed at least $102m to fight the tax and former Google CEO Eric Schmidt more than $42m, the biggest and second-biggest donors, according to campaign finance filings.
- [6]
The yes on 40 campaign has raised a total just shy of $33m, mostly from the healthcare union sponsoring the measure.
- [7]
A late-September University of California poll shows 45% of voters likely to vote yes on the tax and 42% voting no.
- [8]
A month before the late-September poll, the proposal had a 7% lead, according to the Guardian.
- [9]
Opponents placed Propositions 41 and 42 on the November ballot; if either receives more yes votes than Prop 40, it will stop the billionaire tax from taking effect even if Prop 40 passes.
- [10]
Prop 41 directly targets the billionaire tax, while Prop 42 is a more general proposal to protect individuals from certain new taxes.
- [11]
"Props 41 and 42 have poison pills in them to destroy 40," said David McCuan, a political science professor at Sonoma State University who studies ballot measures.
- [12]
Proponents and opponents alike are casting the billionaire tax as a potential first step toward wealth taxes in more states, and California has more billionaires than any other state.
- [13]
The state's major unions, Vermont senator Bernie Sanders and California congressman Ro Khanna back Prop 40; both the Democratic and Republican candidates for governor, and Planned Parenthood Affiliates of California, oppose it.
- [14]
The no campaign placed an ad on television, digital and streaming platforms featuring René Bravo, president of the California Medical Association, who says the claim that Prop 40 would improve healthcare is not true.
- [15]
The measure has divided Democrats in the state; some reject it because it is just a one-time levy and the bulk of it would only fund certain healthcare programs.
- [16]
Among the fiercest critics of Prop 40 are the tech billionaires it would most directly apply to.
- [17]
The opposition's spending in the first 19 days of September works out to about $1.12m a day.
- [18]
Prop 40's lead in the late-September poll is 3 points.
- [19]
The lead narrowed by about 4 points from a month earlier, reading the reported 7% lead as percentage points.
- [20]
Opposition fundraising is roughly ten times the yes campaign's total.
- [21]
Brin and Schmidt together have given at least $144m.
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Sources
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