Tech billionaires have raised more than $340m to defeat California's Proposition 40, a one-time 5% tax on billionaires. Californians vote in early November, and two countermeasures on the same ballot can block the tax even if Prop 40 passes.
Reality
- Evidence68
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap
- Not scored
- Incentives75
- Confidence65
California's Proposition 3 would make the 10.3% to 12.3% top income tax rates permanent, affecting nearly 376,000 taxpayers, American Banker reported. The rates now lapse in 2031, so a passing vote changes what clients owe in every later year.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap−15
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence60
PPIC's September survey puts Prop 40 at 52%, Prop 41 at 51% and Prop 42 at 54%, and Prop 40 takes effect only if it outpolls both in yes votes. Every gap between the three sits inside a 3.8-point margin of error.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+14
- Incentives74
- Confidence64
Proposition 40 would take 5% once from anyone worth over $1 billion. August polling puts it at 48% among likely voters and 75% among 18-to-29s. The composition of the November electorate is the only number that decides it.
Reality
- Evidence46
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+19
- Incentives84
- Confidence52
The CPA body opposes Proposition 40 on administrability grounds, then endorses Proposition 42, which would bar the tax outright. Approval votes, not a majority, settle it.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+14
- Incentives78
- Confidence52
John Doerr put in $7.5 million and Chris Larsen $10 million against a one-time 5% wealth tax. Measured against what the measure would cost them, that is cheap insurance.
Reality
- Evidence57
- Adoption71
- Hype gap+16
- Incentives84
- Confidence61