LeadershipNot yet confirmed elsewhere1 publisher3 min readPublished
Off-grid homes pay 85% more for heating oil than before the Iran war
Heating oil costs 111p a litre, about 85% above its level before the Iran war began in March, according to Boiler Juice. The BBC reports the market is unregulated, so global moves reach roughly 1.5 million off-grid people quickly.
The Board Room · Leadership desk
Four figures. Heating oil now costs 111p per litre, after a dip from a high of 134p per litre when the Iran war began in March. It was about 60p before. About 1.5 million UK people rely on heating oil. A north Wiltshire householder expects his winter top-up to cost over £550.
- 111 p per litre Heating oil price now, claim 5 Boiler Juice, rising again after a dip
- 134 p per litre Peak after Iran war began, claim 4 from a stable level of about 60p
- 1.5 million people UK people reliant on heating oil, claim 1 mostly rural, off the mains gas network
- 550 £ Wiltshire home's winter top-up, claim 6 quoted as over £550
| Figure | Value | Note | Claim |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heating oil price now | 111 p per litre | Boiler Juice, rising again after a dip | 5 |
| Peak after Iran war began | 134 p per litre | from a stable level of about 60p | 4 |
| UK people reliant on heating oil | 1.5 million people | mostly rural, off the mains gas network | 1 |
| Wiltshire home's winter top-up | 550 £ | quoted as over £550 | 6 |
What happened
- The price had been stable at about 60p a litre until March, then jumped to a high of 134p when the war in Iran started.
- The BBC says tensions in the Middle East and the war in Ukraine are both affecting supply and pushing prices up.
- Peter Mason, a retired householder in north Wiltshire, expects his winter top-up to cost over £550, against about £300 to fill the tank last year.
- Van operator Dylan Williams paid £120 to £130 for a full tank at the start of the year and now pays £160, and he has raised his own prices.
Why it matters
- constraint Without a regulated tariff, the buffers the BBC describes are personal savings, a bulk-buying club and fuel cards that save a few pence.
- contradiction The 1.5 million figure and the 60p-to-134p series describe heating oil, but several of the BBC's business examples describe vehicle fuel, so the headline percentages do not map onto them.
- decision Households with low tanks must choose between topping up at 111p and waiting on a peace deal that may or may not arrive.
- exposure A not-for-profit kitchen with thin margins and isolated rural clients passes any price rise to the people least able to find another provider.
The dip since the peak has been partial. A fall from 134p to 111p recovers about 31% of the rise from 60p and leaves about 69% of it in place [20]. At the peak the price stood about 123% above its earlier level [18]. The 111p figure comes from the price comparison site Boiler Juice [5]; the BBC does not attribute the 60p and 134p figures to a source.
Household bills follow the per-litre price. Peter Mason's refill is at least 83% dearer than last year's [21]. He is retired, and he said: "I have to be really careful and pull money out of savings." [8]
The business examples are harder to line up with the headline numbers. Dylan Williams, who runs a van business, saw a full tank rise 23% to 33% from the start of the year [22]. That is well under the heating oil move, but he cited diesel prices [11], and his baseline is January rather than the pre-war months. A fuel card does not close the gap. "It's a few pence really," he said [11].
For firms the choice is between passing the cost on and absorbing it, and the BBC's examples show both pressures. Williams has already raised his prices [10]. Yvette Farrell of Dean Forest Kitchen said the not-for-profit has "not a lot of wiggle room" [12] and might have to raise prices because there is "not going to be much choice in the future" [13]. Her clients are spread across a rural area with no public transport [14]. Tristan Holland pays his care staff 55p per business mile and said "there has to be a profit or else we just can't carry on going." [15]
In our view the timing matters more than the size. The BBC says prices can rise or fall on the words and actions of key political figures [16], and that they could come down if the US and Iran reach a peace deal [23]. A business that raises prices this quarter fixes them at 111p against a market that may move either way. A business that waits absorbs the cost now. The first pays next quarter, when customers see a price that may no longer track the market; the second pays this one.
Buying clubs are the one organised response in the account. Richard Willan runs the Nadder Oil Buying Club, a Wiltshire group through which more than 1,000 residents pool their orders to get a better price, and he said rural residents were increasingly vulnerable as colder months set in [17]. The club is watching the US mid-term elections, and Willan said "that might change things again" [24].
What to watch
- Whether a US-Iran peace deal is signed, which the BBC says could bring heating oil prices down.
- Whether Boiler Juice's 111p reading keeps climbing toward the 134p high, since the price is rising again after a dip.
- Whether Dean Forest Kitchen follows through on the price rise Yvette Farrell said it might have to make.
Clarity's read
What the record supports and how the coverage leans. The claims behind it follow.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence60
Claim ledger
Ranked by verification strength, evidence, and original report placement.
- [1]
About 1.5 million people across the UK are not on the mains gas network and rely on heating oil, the vast majority of them in rural locations.
- [2]
The heating oil market is unregulated, unlike gas and electricity, so any change in the global price is quickly passed on to customers.
- [3]
Tensions in the Middle East and the ongoing war in Ukraine are both affecting supply, which is causing prices to rise.
- [4]
Until March the heating oil price was stable at about 60p per litre; when the war in Iran started in March it jumped to a high of 134p per litre.
- [5]
After a dip in the past few months the heating oil price is rising again and currently stands at 111p per litre, according to price comparison site Boiler Juice.
- [6]
Peter Mason of Minety, north Wiltshire, needs to top up his heating oil tank for winter and said "it will be over £550".
- [7]
Mason said that last year it was about £300 to fill up.
- [8]
Mason, who is retired, said: "I have to be really careful and pull money out of savings."
- [9]
Dylan Williams, who owns van business Van & I of Monmouth, said he paid between £120 and £130 for a full tank at the start of the year and now pays £160.
- [10]
Williams said he has had to put the prices of his services up to offset the rise in fuel costs.
- [11]
Williams said he keeps an eye on diesel prices, and that fuel cards make little difference: "It's a few pence really."
- [12]
Yvette Farrell, volunteer director of Dean Forest Kitchen, said the not-for-profit has "not a lot of wiggle room" when expenses increase.
- [13]
Farrell said Dean Forest Kitchen might have to increase prices as there is "not going to be much choice in the future".
- [14]
Dean Forest Kitchen's clients are spread across a very rural area with no public transport.
- [15]
Tristan Holland of TLC Support Service pays staff who use their own vehicles mileage at 55p per business mile and said: "there has to be a profit or else we just can't carry on going."
- [16]
The Iran war has disrupted the production and transportation of wholesale oil, and prices can rise or fall based on the words and actions of key political figures.
- [17]
Richard Willan runs the Nadder Oil Buying Club in Wiltshire, where more than 1,000 residents buy in bulk together to get a better price, and said rural residents were increasingly vulnerable as the colder months set in.
- [18]
The price at its 134p peak was about 123% above the earlier price of about 60p.
- [19]
At 111p a litre the price is about 85% above the earlier price of about 60p.
- [20]
The fall from 134p to 111p recovers about 31% of the 74p rise from 60p and leaves about 69% of it in place.
- [21]
Mason's refill cost of over £550 is at least 83% higher than last year's cost of about £300.
- [22]
Williams's full-tank cost rose between about 23% and 33% from the start of the year.
- [23]
It is thought prices could come down if there is a peace deal between the US and Iran.
- [24]
Willan said the club is watching the US mid-term elections and that "that might change things again".
Sources
1 independent publisher whose own reporting we read for this story.
- bbc.co.ukWhy some have no choice but to pay costly oil prices
1 article · October 11, 2026
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