Carmakers, defense and biotech outpace chips in KOSPI's 2.05% rebound

The chip bounce is small, or rather it is small against the fall that preceded it. Samsung Electronics dropped 9.48% in the previous session ^[9] and gained 2.62% on Friday to 215,500 won ^[8]. That leaves it about 7.1% below its close before the drop ^[18]. SK hynix dropped 11.06% ^[9] and gained 0.79% to 1,272,000 won ^[8], which puts it about 10.4% below ^[19]. Yonhap put the earlier fall in the top chipmakers at over 10 percent ^[10]; on Seoul Economic Daily's per-stock figures only SK hynix clears that line ^[9], and neither report lists other chipmakers.

The buying behind the bounce was small. Yonhap called trade volume light, at 20 trillion won (about US$15 billion) ^[14], and the foreigners' net purchases of 343.5 billion won ^[13] are 1.7% of that ^[21]. Net selling by retail and institutional investors exceeded foreign net buying by 826.5 billion won ^[20]. The reports do not say which investor group took the other side.

Yonhap's headline credits bets on Fed rate hikes ^[24]. Its text is less direct. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh did not signal whether a hike is coming ^[3], and the report says his comments revived appetite for risky assets as recent U.S. inflation data showed prices rising faster than expected ^[4]. It adds that sentiment was lifted by his description of AI as "probably the most consequential change to the U.S. and the global economy in my lifetime" ^[5]. "It is meaningful that the Fed Chair maintained a positive assessment of the AI industry's structural growth, despite concerns over growing credit risks and funding burdens at such companies," Seo Sang-yong, an analyst at Mirae Asset Securities, said ^[6].

Seoul Economic Daily does not mention the Fed. It cites mounting doubts over AI valuations ^[12] and a Gartner projection of $7 trillion in cumulative AI infrastructure investment from 2026 to 2030 against $3.6 trillion of data center revenue ^[16]. Revenue would cover about 51% of the spend, a $3.4 trillion gap ^[22]. Against that, local brokerages are watching earnings: forecasts for Samsung and SK hynix have been revised up, and TrendForce projects double-digit DRAM price gains in the fourth quarter ^[17]. "The recent plunge in the domestic stock market was excessive relative to earnings forecasts for major companies," a securities industry official said, according to the paper ^[25]. "There is a possibility of a W-shaped rebound, with shares rising after passing a bottom," the official added ^[26].

We think Friday was mostly a chip and AI-credit session with the Fed as backdrop. The chip leaders regained a fraction of their losses, the sharpest gains came from names with less AI exposure ^[11], and the one Fed fact in the reports is the absence of a signal. That view has three rivals. The W-shaped path the official describes would send chips down again before earnings catch up. A rotation into AI-light names would keep the chip gap open while the index rises. A hike signal from Warsh would let rates move foreign flows on their own. The view is wrong if KOSPI falls on a hawkish signal while chip prices hold, or if the next 10% move in the chips arrives with no AI credit headline.