NBA Europe will fill 12 of its 16 top-tier places without qualification

Most of the openness in NBA Europe sits below the top tier. Four of the 16 top places go to qualifiers ^[6], so 12 are filled without qualifying ^[16]. That leaves a quarter of the top table open on merit ^[17]. The second tier reverses the ratio. Aivazoglou, the NBA's managing director for Europe and the Middle East, told the Sportico Invest London conference that NBA Europe is a semi-open league and that the second competition, the Basketball Champions League (BCL), will be fully open, so 75 per cent of the teams will come in on merit ^[4][1].

I think the claim that the NBA is entering Europe on European rules holds for the second tier and only in part for the top. The governance it wants comes from the US. City AM reported that the league wants salary cap rules and collective bargaining agreements, applied as far as European laws allow ^[13]. Josh Empson, a partner at private equity firm Sixth Street, gave the investor's view. "The good news about it being the NBA is we know what the NBA looks like," he said ^[14].

A skeptic would say that a league keeping three-quarters of its top seats away from qualification ^[17] is a closed league with an open feeder underneath. On the format published so far, that is a fair description of the top tier. Aivazoglou's reply is about character. The competition "will feel very natively European, very authentic. It will respect the traditions of the game," he said ^[15]. The commercial reply is the franchise price. The NBA believes new franchises will fetch $1bn in some markets ^[10], and I would expect a buyer paying that much to want a seat that one bad season cannot take away. City AM's report does not say whether the four qualifying places turn over each season, or whether any of the other 12 can drop out ^[6][16].

This quarter's risk is in the order of decisions. The NBA has fixed its format and its timetable before agreeing terms with the incumbent competition ^[2]. City AM's assessment is that a deal with EuroLeague would be far less messy and more commercially viable, because the NBA wants to draw Real Madrid and Barcelona away from it ^[8]. EuroLeague is open to working together but is pursuing its own expansion at the same time ^[9]. Aivazoglou said "the NBA's intent is to work with the existing players who are in Europe" ^[7]. Neither side would comment on whether further talks will take place ^[11].

The first decision falls to the franchise investors, some of whom are impatient for clarity, according to City AM ^[10]. The clubs decide after them. Reports this week raised the possibility of a delay to 2028. Aivazoglou said the league was "moving ahead with our plans for a launch in the next year" ^[3]. According to City AM, insiders feel the talks are not over ^[19].