InvestNot yet confirmed elsewhere1 publisher2 min readPublished
KOSDAQ's 4.24% October gain leans on chip suppliers up as much as 138% since August
Korea's KOSDAQ rose 4.24% this month through Oct. 11 while the KOSPI fell 3.1%, Korea Exchange figures show. Seoul Economic Daily reported that the buying is concentrated in chip materials and equipment suppliers, so anyone buying the small-cap index is holding a narrow bet on chip spending.
The Investor · Invest desk
What happened
- The KOSDAQ lost the 1,000 level in June and slid into the 600s by late July, then rebounded 15.91% in August and 2.59% in September.
- On Oct. 6 the index closed above 900 for the first time in about three months, then slipped back below that level while still holding up better than the KOSPI.
- From August through Oct. 8, SFA Semicon rose 137.78%, Jusung Engineering 114.86%, PSK Holdings 114.21% and HPSP 86.71%.
Why it matters
- exposure Investors who move into small caps to get away from Samsung Electronics and SK hynix end up holding the same chip-spending cycle one step down the supply chain.
- constraint Elevated market interest rates weigh on the small- and mid-cap growth shares that would have to join in for the KOSDAQ's gains to spread beyond chip suppliers.
- decision Holders of the leading names are now waiting on earnings, since analysts tie a lasting rally to profits growing beyond chips and call the alternative a short-lived rotation.
Add the two boards together and average daily turnover fell from 31.84 trillion won in August to 28.53 trillion won this month, a drop of about 10% [18]. Turnover counts trades in both directions, so the figure measures activity, and overall activity fell. KOSPI daily trading fell by 6.01 trillion won. KOSDAQ trading rose by 2.70 trillion, about 45% of what the large-cap board lost [20]. The junior market's share of combined turnover rose from roughly 19% to roughly 30% [19].
Prices point the same way. Seoul Economic Daily lists four supply-chain names, and their average gain from August through Oct. 8 was about 113% [17]. Compounding the index's three monthly moves gives about 24% from the end of July through Oct. 11 [16]. The paper does not say how much of the index gain came from chip names. The case for concentration therefore rests on those four stocks and on how the analysts it cites describe where the buying went [2].
The best argument against that reading comes from LS Securities. "Leadership in the global AI investment cycle is shifting from memory toward custom chips, materials and equipment, and cybersecurity," analyst Hwang San-hae said [9]. "The KOSDAQ has shown relative strength as money rotated into materials and equipment, secondary batteries and energy," he said [10]. The paper also reports interest spreading to robotics and AI data center plays [8]. If batteries, energy and robotics begin to post earnings, the concentration risk is smaller than the four chip stocks imply.
If chip suppliers' earnings expectations rise enough to support prices that have doubled, the index stays narrow but has profits behind it. Should expectations stall, the names that rose most have the furthest to fall, and the index goes with them. The third path runs through the sectors Hwang names: if they start reporting growth, the KOSDAQ no longer depends on a few equipment makers [10].
In our view a stall is the bigger risk for anyone buying the index now. The extra KOSDAQ turnover matches money moving out of large caps [20], and three of the four leaders have already more than doubled [5]. If the KOSDAQ holds near 900 while those four cool, other sectors are carrying it and this view is wrong.
What to watch
- ASML's results on Oct. 14: analysts cited by Seoul Economic Daily say a beat could ease valuation concerns across the chip supply chain.
- TSMC's results on Oct. 15, and whether it keeps an expansionary capital spending stance that would lift earnings expectations for its suppliers.
- Foreign and institutional buying of KOSDAQ chip names; the paper says it is unclear whether that support persists.
Clarity's read
What the record supports and how the coverage leans. The claims behind it follow.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence55
Claim ledger
Ranked by verification strength, evidence, and original report placement.
- [1]
The KOSDAQ has risen 4.24% so far this month, according to the Korea Exchange on the 11th; over the same period the KOSPI fell 3.1%.
- [2]
Analysts caution that the rally rests on buying concentrated in a handful of sectors rather than on broad earnings improvement, making further gains hard to count on.
- [3]
The KOSDAQ lost the 1,000 level in June and slid to the 600 range by late July, before rebounding 15.91% in August and 2.59% in September.
- [4]
On the 6th, the KOSDAQ closed above 900 for the first time in about three months; it has since fallen back below that level but continues to hold up better than the KOSPI.
- [5]
From August through the 8th of this month, SFA Semicon rose 137.78%, Jusung Engineering 114.86%, Psk Holdings 114.21% and HPSP 86.71%.
- [6]
Analysts attribute the moves to investor enthusiasm spreading from large-cap chipmakers such as Samsung Electronics and SK hynix to back-end processing and equipment companies.
- [7]
Average daily turnover on the KOSDAQ reached 8.69 trillion won this month, up 45.2% from 5.99 trillion won in August; KOSPI daily turnover fell to 19.84 trillion won this month from 25.85 trillion won in August.
- [8]
Interest is broadening beyond chips to robotics and artificial intelligence data center plays.
- [9]
"Leadership in the global AI investment cycle is shifting from memory toward custom chips, materials and equipment, and cybersecurity,"
- [10]
"The KOSDAQ has shown relative strength as money rotated into materials and equipment, secondary batteries and energy."
- [11]
Elevated market interest rates remain a drag on small- and mid-cap growth shares.
- [12]
Whether foreign and institutional buying persists remains to be seen.
- [13]
Earnings from global chip companies next week are seen as a key variable for the KOSDAQ: ASML reports on the 14th and TSMC on the 15th.
- [14]
Analysts say better-than-expected ASML results could ease valuation concerns across the global chip supply chain, and confirmation that TSMC is maintaining an expansionary capital spending stance could lift earnings expectations for related suppliers.
- [15]
Analysts say a sustained KOSDAQ rally would require gains concentrated in chip supply chain stocks to spread to other sectors and translate into earnings growth; if high borrowing costs persist and more companies miss earnings expectations, the rebound could prove a short-lived rotation.
- [16]
The KOSDAQ's August, September and October-to-date moves compound to a gain of about 24% from the end of July.
- [17]
The four named chip supply-chain stocks gained an average of about 113% from August through Oct. 8.
- [18]
Combined KOSPI and KOSDAQ average daily turnover fell from 31.84 trillion won in August to 28.53 trillion won this month, a drop of about 10%.
- [19]
The KOSDAQ's share of combined daily turnover rose from about 19% in August to about 30% this month.
- [20]
KOSPI daily turnover fell by 6.01 trillion won while KOSDAQ daily turnover rose by 2.70 trillion won, about 45% of the KOSPI decline.
Sources
1 independent publisher whose own reporting we read for this story.
- en.sedaily.comKOSDAQ Outpaces KOSPI as Chip Equipment Stocks Drive Rally
1 article · October 10, 2026
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