Invest2 publishersIndependently confirmed2 min readPublished
TSMC's monthly sales level off near NT$512 billion at 54.6% annual growth
TSMC's September revenue rose 54.6% from a year earlier to about $16 billion. Sales were 0.6% below August's, CNBC reported, so September's faster growth rate came from a weaker year-ago month while the monthly level held near NT$512 billion.
The Investor · Invest desk
What happened
- August revenue was NT$514.81 billion, TSMC's first month above NT$500 billion, up 53.3% on a year earlier and 10.1% on July.
- Revenue for January through August totalled NT$3.387 trillion, 39.3% more than in the same months of the prior year.
- Third-quarter revenue came to around NT$1.49 trillion, CNBC reported, with TSMC's full quarterly results due next week.
- High-performance computing, the category covering AI accelerators, accounts for 66% of TSMC's revenue, and Nvidia and Apple are among its major customers.
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Why it matters
- decision Nine-month revenue is up about 41% in Taiwan dollars against a full-year forecast of slightly above 40% in US dollars, so next week TSMC either raises the forecast or implies a fourth quarter growing well below August and September's 54%.
- exposure TSMC is putting $60 billion to $64 billion into 2026 capacity, plus a commitment to ASML's High NA EUV tools, on revenue dominated by a small group of AI buyers, and it carries that cost if they slow before the capacity earns a return.
- constraint With 5/4nm and 3nm lines sold out, extra AI orders at those nodes cannot turn into extra revenue until capacity is added, so fourth-quarter growth depends on how fast 2nm output rises.
September's acceleration happened in the growth ratio, or more precisely in its denominator. Year-on-year growth went from 53.3% in August to 54.6% in September [5][2], while sales fell 0.6% [2]. Working back from those rates, revenue was about NT$336 billion in August 2025 and about NT$331 billion in September 2025 [17][16]. The year-ago base fell about 1.4% between the two months [18], more than this year's sales did. That difference accounts for the whole 1.3-point rise in the growth rate [19].
The step up in growth is real, and it came in a single month. Take August out of the January-to-August total and the first seven months grew about 37% [20]. August and September together grew about 54% [21]. August revenue jumped 10.1% over July [5], and September kept almost all of that level [2].
Two explanations fit a flat month after a jump. Either AI customers paused orders, or TSMC had no more leading-edge wafers to sell. The second has the evidence behind it. Crypto Briefing reported that TSMC's 5/4nm and 3nm capacity is fully booked and that its 2nm process is in the middle of its commercial ramp [10]. Nodes of 7nm and below make up 77% of wafer revenue [9]. A sold-out fab ships about the same output each month whatever its order book says. In my view September shows the ceiling on supply and says little about whether demand is still rising. The capacity reading is wrong if next week's results show the 3nm or 5/4nm lines running below full.
In dollars, the quarter looks ahead of guidance. CNBC's September figures imply an exchange rate of about NT$31.9 to the dollar [22]. At that rate the quarter's roughly NT$1.49 trillion [4] comes to about $46.7 billion [23]. That is some $0.9 billion above the top of the $44.6 billion to $45.8 billion guidance [6][24], and about 16% above the second quarter's $40.20 billion [8][25]. July's exchange rate may have differed, so the size of the beat is an estimate. TSMC shares closed 1.35% lower on the day before the September figure came out [13].
What to watch
- October monthly revenue: a figure well above August's NT$514.81 billion before 2nm volume grows would mean output rose without new capacity, against the supply-ceiling reading.
- Fourth-quarter guidance next week: a range well above the third quarter's roughly $46.7 billion would show new capacity turning into sales, while a flat range would confirm the plateau.