Hunterbrook, short Lennar and Millrose, says none of 75 Millrose homes it visited looked occupied
Hunterbrook Media reporters found none of 75 Millrose-owned homes in Florida and Texas appeared occupied in late September. Hunterbrook Capital discloses it is short both Millrose and Lennar, so the finding comes with a position attached.
The Investor · Invest desk
Three figures: over 95% of homes Millrose bought from Lennar were advertised for rent on Evergreen's website roughly a month after purchase; Hunterbrook estimates the purchases at roughly $290 million in about a month; Lennar was responsible for 72% of Millrose revenue last quarter.
| Figure | Value | Note | Claim |
|---|---|---|---|
| Share listed for rent: over | 95% | On Evergreen's site, a month after purchase | 7 |
| Est. value of Lennar homes bought | $290 million | Roughly, in about a month | 11 |
| Millrose revenue from Lennar | 72% | Last quarter | 13 |
What happened
- Roughly a month after purchase, over 95% of the Lennar homes Millrose bought were advertised for rent to the public on the site of Evergreen, the rental manager Millrose hired.
- Evergreen call center representatives told a Hunterbrook reporter the company did not offer rent-to-own and offered ordinary leases instead.
- The same week as the visits, Millrose executives met Goldman Sachs, and the bank's September 30 recap of that meeting went to clients.
- Lennar shares fell 6.7% and Millrose shares 8.5% on the first full trading day after Hunterbrook's earlier report; neither company has publicly addressed the findings.
Why it matters
- contradiction Goldman's note and Hunterbrook's listing count cannot both describe one business. A lease signed before closing leaves no reason to advertise the house, and over 95% were advertised.
- exposure Lennar's one homebuilding target met last quarter rested on purchases by a customer that supplies 72% of Millrose's revenue and whose largest voting shareholder is Lennar's CEO.
- cost If the houses sit vacant, roughly $290 million of Millrose capital earns no rent while tied up in finished homes, an asset the company was not created to hold.
- constraint The only site evidence comes from a reporting group whose affiliated fund is short both stocks, and the 75 visited homes are 6.8% of the records found.
The visits are a small sample. Seventy-five homes is 6.8% of the 1,096 transaction records Hunterbrook has found [17], and the 75 sit in two communities, one in Florida's Marion County and one in Princeton, Texas, while the records span 16 states [2][3][11]. At the average deal size those records imply, about $265,000 [16], the 75 houses come to roughly $20 million of the $290 million [18].
The Goldman line is what makes an empty house worth a story. "Millrose buys the home with a signed lease already in place," the bank wrote in its September 30 recap [5]. That is Goldman's account of a meeting, relayed in a client note Hunterbrook says it reviewed [6], and the company did not publish those words itself. A vacant house can still have a lease behind it, since a tenant who signed in September can hold an October move-in date. A public rental listing is harder to square with a lease signed before closing, and Hunterbrook's own reasoning is that in that case "presumably, there would be no need to list the homes for rent" [20].
Asked whether Millrose had really made these claims, a Goldman analyst said: "I can't talk to that," and ended the conversation [9]. Millrose and Lennar did not respond to Hunterbrook's repeated requests for comment [10].
Hunterbrook Capital is short both stocks and long a basket of comparable securities, according to the disclosure on its own article [1]. It profits if this account holds and the shares keep falling. The short position is a reason to weight the evidence anyone can verify, such as the Evergreen listings, above a reporter's impression of 75 houses.
In our view the listings are the stronger half of the case and the visits the weaker. The case fails if Millrose or Lennar produces leases dated before closing for a meaningful share of the 1,096 purchases, or if Goldman's note overstated what executives said. In that second case the conflict is between the bank's note and what was actually said in its own meeting.
Hunterbrook expects Millrose may call the purchases a small pilot, and says the model differs from what the land bank pitched investors before it listed last year [19]. Calling them a pilot would explain their size but not whether the leases came first.
What to watch
- Whether Millrose or Lennar produces leases dated before closing for a meaningful share of the 1,096 purchases.
- Whether the Evergreen listings for the purchased homes change status, or move-in dates slip past mid-October.
- Whether Goldman clarifies or revises its September 30 recap of the Millrose meeting.
Clarity's read
What the record supports and how the coverage leans. The claims behind it follow.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives80
- Confidence45
Claim ledger
Ranked by verification strength, evidence, and original report placement.
- [1]
Hunterbrook's disclosure states that Hunterbrook Capital is short $MRP (Millrose) and short $LEN (Lennar), and long a basket of comparable securities.
- [2]
On September 29, a Hunterbrook reporter visited 36 houses owned by Millrose Properties in Florida's Marion County.
- [3]
The next day, another Hunterbrook reporter visited 39 houses Millrose had purchased from Lennar in Princeton, Texas.
- [4]
Reporters found unfurnished rooms and notices hanging from doors, and not one of the 75 homes appeared occupied.
- [5]
Goldman Sachs wrote in its September 30 recap of a meeting with Millrose: "Millrose buys the home with a signed lease already in place."
- [6]
The same week as the site visits, Millrose executives were describing to Goldman Sachs a business in which tenants would already be lined up before the company bought the houses, according to a research note sent to clients that Hunterbrook reviewed.
- [7]
Roughly a month after purchase, over 95% of homes Millrose bought from Lennar are advertised as available to the public for rent on the website of Evergreen, a rental management company Millrose has hired, with move-in dates on most listings ranging from "now" to mid-October.
- [8]
When a Hunterbrook reporter contacted Evergreen Residential Holdings about Millrose-owned homes, multiple call center representatives said Evergreen did not offer rent-to-own and offered ordinary leases instead.
- [9]
Asked whether Millrose had really made these claims, a Goldman analyst said: "I can't talk to that," and ended the conversation.
- [10]
Neither Millrose nor Lennar has responded to Hunterbrook's repeated requests for comment, and neither has publicly addressed Hunterbrook's findings.
- [11]
Hunterbrook identified a total of 1,096 transaction records across 16 states, bringing the estimated aggregate transaction value of Millrose purchases of Lennar homes to roughly $290 million in about a month.
- [12]
Lennar shares fell 6.7% on the first full trading day after Hunterbrook's earlier report, their "sharpest one-day decline since March 2024," according to Barron's; Millrose shares fell 8.5% the same day.
- [13]
Lennar is Millrose's largest customer, responsible for 72% of revenue last quarter, and Millrose's largest voting shareholder is Lennar's own CEO, Stuart Miller.
- [14]
Millrose accounted for a fraction of Lennar's home deliveries last fiscal quarter, but its purchases pushed Lennar's third-quarter deliveries past guidance, the only homebuilding target it hit that quarter.
- [15]
Millrose was created to hold land for future construction, giving Lennar access to building sites without having to own them outright.
- [16]
The roughly $290 million across 1,096 records averages about $265,000 per record.
- [17]
The 75 homes visited are about 6.8% of the 1,096 transaction records Hunterbrook found.
- [18]
At the average implied deal size, 75 houses come to roughly $20 million.
- [19]
Hunterbrook says Millrose may describe the purchases as a small pilot, but that it is a totally different business model from what the land bank had pitched investors prior to being listed last year.
- [20]
Hunterbrook argues that a business where the lease is signed before the purchase closes would presumably have no need to list the homes for rent.
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Sources
1 independent publisher whose own reporting we read for this story.
- published a follow-up
hntrbrk.com
1 article · October 11, 2026
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