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Ford's September surge narrowly edged Hyundai and Kia for the quarter, by just 1,195 vehicles
Ford outsold Hyundai and Kia by about 17,000 US vehicles in September, enough to hold third place for the quarter after trailing them in July and August. The fuel-economy rollback credited with giving Detroit room on trucks starts only in late November, so Ford won the quarter under the old targets.
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What happened
- Hyundai and Kia sold 178,405 US vehicles in August for a record 12.9% monthly share, according to Omdia, their second straight month ahead of Ford.
- Cox Automotive puts the Korean pair's combined US share at 11.8% from January through August, behind Ford's 12.2%.
- The Trump administration cut the industrywide 2031 fuel-economy target from 50.4 to 34.9 miles per gallon.
- Deloitte found US preference for hybrids rose from 21% to 26% between late 2021 and late 2025, while preference for combustion cars fell from 68% to 61%.
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Why it matters
- decision Ford, GM and Stellantis can plan their 2027 to 2031 models with fewer EVs needed to offset gasoline trucks, and put more of their product effort into large SUVs and pickups.
- exposure Hyundai's hybrid edge now rests more on what buyers choose than on what rivals need for compliance, and Kim expects the change to help the makers with few hybrids most.
- constraint Hyundai's extended-range answer for larger SUVs cannot reach US buyers before the rollback starts, so its remaining months against Ford run on the hybrid lineup it has now.
Take July and August out of the third-quarter totals and you are left with September. Hyundai and Kia sold about 162,511 US vehicles that month [5]. Ford sold about 179,499 [6]. That 16,988-vehicle margin [7] wiped out the 15,793 vehicles Ford had trailed by over the previous two months [17] and left it 1,195 ahead for the quarter [1].
Most of the swing came from Ford's side. Its implied September ran about 15,550 vehicles above its own July-August monthly average, while the Korean pair's ran about 9,330 below theirs [8]. Hyundai-Kia's September was its weakest month of the quarter, below an implied 165,284 in July [18] and below August's record [2].
The Korea Herald calls hybrids central to the group's push, because they sell fuel economy to buyers who do not want to rely on charging infrastructure [9]. The article does not break out hybrid volumes or say whether its monthly and quarterly counts come from the same compiler. Without hybrid volumes, there is no way to measure how much of the summer lead came from hybrids. If the monthly and quarterly counts use different methods, some of the September swing comes from that difference.
The rule change works through fleet averaging. Compliance is measured across a maker's whole lineup, so a lower target reduces the need to sell EVs to offset less efficient gasoline models [11]. The 2031 target falls by about 31% [23]. "With lower fuel economy thresholds, legacy US automakers can redirect focus toward their higher-margin products, such as large SUVs and pickup trucks, expanding market share in their most profitable segments," said Lee Ho-geun, an automotive engineering professor at Daeduk University [12]. The new targets apply to model years 2027 through 2031 [10].
I think the rollback mostly changes Detroit's 2027-model planning, where it no longer has to sell as many EVs to balance its trucks [11]. It does less for this year's ranking.
Cox Automotive's year-to-date shares put Ford 0.4 points ahead through August [19]. To close that gap in the last four months, Hyundai and Kia would have to beat Ford by about 0.8 points a month on average, assuming steady monthly volumes [20]. Even the summer pace falls short. A 15,793-vehicle lead over two months is about 7,900 a month. August's market was roughly 1.38 million vehicles, going by Omdia's share figure [21], so that lead comes to about 0.57 points [22]. September went the other way [7].
Hyundai plans to answer by changing its mix. "Hyundai already boasts a complete powertrain portfolio. They just need to adjust the production ratios," said Kim Pil-su, an automotive engineering professor at Daelim University [15]. The extended-range Santa Fe is due in the US in early 2027, built at the Alabama plant [16].
Two things could make September misleading. Ford's month could fade in October, or the monthly and quarterly series could differ enough to inflate it. I'd still expect Ford to hold third for the year, because Hyundai and Kia need a bigger monthly lead than the summer figures show. The counter-case is that the Korean pair set a share record in August [2] and that Ford's September is a single month. If Hyundai and Kia beat Ford in October and November by more than about 7,900 vehicles a month, before the rollback starts, that view is wrong.
What to watch
- Omdia and Cox counts for October and November, the last months before the rollback starts, against the roughly 7,900-vehicle monthly lead Hyundai and Kia averaged over the summer.
- Ford, GM and Stellantis model-year 2027 mix, and whether volume moves toward large SUVs and pickups as Lee expects once the 34.9 mpg target applies.
- Whether the Santa Fe EREV keeps its early-2027 US debut from the Alabama plant.