LeadershipNot yet confirmed elsewhere1 publisher2 min readPublished
Existing-home sales edge up to a 3.99 million pace as the 30-year mortgage rate reaches 7.4%
US existing-home sales rose 1.5% in September to a 3.99 million annual pace, the National Association of Realtors said, but fell 2.2% from a year earlier. Many of those deals were signed at 30-year rates of 6.43% to 6.69%, below last week's 7.4%.
The Board Room · Leadership desk
Key figures: US existing-home sales ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.99 million units in September, per NAR. The historic norm is closer to 5.2 million. Sales fell 2.2% from September last year.
| Figure | Value | Note | Claim |
|---|---|---|---|
| September sales, seasonally adjusted annual rate | 3.99 million units | 1 | |
| Historic norm, about | 5.2 million units | 5 | |
| Fall from a year earlier | 2.2% | 2 |
What happened
- The U.S. median sales price rose 1.3% from a year earlier to $417,500, the highest September figure in NAR data going back to 1999.
- Realtor.com put the national median listing price at $419,250, down 1.2% from a year earlier, with about 21% of listings carrying a reduced initial price.
- Unsold inventory reached 1.6 million homes at the end of September, the highest level since November 2019, NAR said.
- September is the second month in a row that the annual sales pace has stayed below 4 million.
Why it matters
- constraint A beat of 10,000 sales over forecast, helped by a lower August base, is too thin to extrapolate into a trend.
- contradiction Record closed-sale prices and falling asking prices give sellers and buyers different anchors, and it is not yet clear which one the next closings will follow.
- decision A buyer who can afford today's rates faces NAR's chief economist telling buyers to treat 7% as "the new normal", so waiting for relief is a bet against his forecast.
The 3.99 million pace is about 1.21 million sales a year short of the historic norm of closer to 5.2 million, a gap of roughly 23% [22]. The stall is older than this year's rate rise. According to the report, the market has been slumping since mortgage rates started rising off their pandemic lows in 2022, and sales last year were essentially flat at a 30-year low [18]. This year the report attributes the rut in large part to borrowing costs, which have risen since the war between the U.S. and Iran began in late February [19]. The report does not say how much of the weakness comes from rates and how much from prices.
September's closings mostly reflect lower rates than buyers face today. Many of the homes bought last month likely went under contract in July and August, when Freddie Mac put the average 30-year rate between 6.43% and 6.69% [9]. Last week's 7.4% is 0.71 to 0.97 percentage points above that range [8][24]. Many of those contracts predate the higher rate, so the September count says little about how buyers respond to it [9][8]. "This is a very tough market out there, especially with mortgage rates rising," Yun said [10]. He said mortgage rates are not likely to drop meaningfully any time soon, given uncertainty over oil prices, geopolitical tensions and U.S. government debt [11].
Months' supply is rising because inventory is up and sales are down. Unsold homes are up 4.6% from a year earlier while sales are down 2.2% [14][2]. The 4.8 months' supply sits inside the 4-to-6-month range traditionally considered balanced [15]. Dividing 1.6 million homes by the monthly sales rate of 3.99 million over 12 gives 4.8 months [25]. The measure moves with the sales pace, so a further slide in sales raises months' supply even if no new listings arrive. Buyers who can afford current rates, or pay cash, have a wider selection than in years as properties sit longer [20]. "The market is clearly tilting in favor of buyers able to negotiate for better prices," Yun said [17].
In our view, a planning case for this quarter belongs near 4 million annual sales, the pace the market has hovered around since 2023 [5]. The first readings to include more contracts signed near 7.4% will show whether that pace holds or drops further below 4 million [8][6].
What to watch
- NAR's next existing-home sales report, for whether the annual pace stays under 4 million as contracts signed at higher rates close.
- The weekly 30-year mortgage rate against Yun's 7% benchmark, and whether it stays above it.
- Months' supply and the share of listings with price cuts, for any move past the 4-to-6-month balanced range or above 21%.
Clarity's read
What the record supports and how the coverage leans. The claims behind it follow.
Reality
- Evidence78
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence72
Claim ledger
Ranked by verification strength, evidence, and original report placement.
- [1]
Existing home sales rose 1.5% in September from August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.99 million units, the National Association of Realtors said.
- [2]
Existing home sales fell 2.2% in September compared with September last year.
- [3]
One of the factors in the monthly increase is that sales in August were revised lower.
- [4]
Economists were expecting a 3.98 million pace, according to FactSet.
- [5]
Home sales have been mostly hovering close to a 4-million annual pace going back to 2023, far short of the historic norm that is closer to 5.2 million.
- [6]
September is the second month in a row that the annual sales pace has remained below 4 million.
- [7]
The U.S. median sales price increased 1.3% in September from a year earlier to $417,500, an all-time high for the month of September based on data going back to 1999, NAR said.
- [8]
The average rate on the benchmark 30-year mortgage hit 7.4% last week, its highest level in nearly three years.
- [9]
Many of the homes purchased last month likely went under contract in August and July, when the average rate on a 30-year mortgage ranged from 6.43% to 6.69%, according to Freddie Mac.
- [10]
"This is a very tough market out there, especially with mortgage rates rising," said Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist.
- [11]
Yun said mortgage rates are not likely to drop meaningfully any time soon, given ongoing uncertainty over oil prices, geopolitical tensions, the exploding U.S. government debt and other factors.
- [12]
Yun said homebuyers should consider mortgage rates at 7%, or slightly above 7%, "the new normal."
- [13]
There were 1.6 million unsold homes at the end of September, the highest level of unsold inventory on the market since November 2019, NAR said, although inventory remains below historical norms.
- [14]
Unsold home inventory rose 1.9% in September from August and climbed 4.6% from September last year, NAR said.
- [15]
September's month-end inventory translates to a 4.8-months' supply at the current sales pace; traditionally a 4- to 6-month supply is considered a balanced market.
- [16]
In September the national median listing price fell 1.2% from a year earlier to $419,250, and about 21% of listings had their initial price lowered, according to Realtor.com.
- [17]
"The market is clearly tilting in favor of buyers able to negotiate for better prices," Yun said.
- [18]
The U.S. housing market has been in a slump since 2022, when mortgage rates began to climb from pandemic-era lows, and sales of previously occupied homes were essentially flat last year, stuck at a 30-year low.
- [19]
This year sales have been in a rut in large part due to rising borrowing costs, as mortgage rates have marched higher in the months since the war between the U.S. and Iran started in late February.
- [20]
Buyers who can afford to buy at current rates, or pay all cash, have a much wider selection of homes to choose from than they have had in years as properties sit on the market longer.
- [21]
The 30-year mortgage rate briefly dipped below 6% before the war between the U.S. and Iran started.
- [22]
The 3.99 million annual pace is about 1.21 million below the roughly 5.2 million historic norm, or about 23% below it.
- [23]
The 3.99 million pace is 10,000 sales above the 3.98 million economists expected.
- [24]
The 7.4% 30-year rate is 0.71 to 0.97 percentage points above the 6.43% to 6.69% range seen in July and August.
- [25]
1.6 million unsold homes divided by a monthly sales rate of 3.99 million over 12 gives about 4.8 months of supply, matching NAR's figure.
Sources
1 independent publisher whose own reporting we read for this story.
- abcnews.comUS home sales rose in September, but slowed from a year earlier
1 article · October 13, 2026
- fortune.com‘A very tough market out there’: U.S. home sales fell 2.2% from last year as mortgage rates and prices rise
1 article · October 13, 2026
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Topics
- Mortgage RatesFollow
- Existing home salesFollow
- US Housing MarketFollow
Entities
- National Association of RealtorsFollow
- Lawrence YunFollow
- Freddie MacFollow
- FactSetFollow
- Realtor.comFollow