Topic
The US market for buying and selling homes, shaped by mortgage rates, home prices, inventory levels and existing-home sales volumes.
Freddie Mac's benchmark 30-year mortgage rate rose to 7.28% this week, a sixth straight weekly increase and the highest since November 2023. Since February it has risen as far as the 10-year Treasury yield, so the cost of a move this fall depends on the bond market's inflation outlook.
Reality
Redfin counted 58% more US home sellers than buyers in August, its widest gap on record, with concessions in 44.7% of sales. Whether buyers are actually paying less depends on how large those concessions have become, because the median sale price still rose about 2% over the year.
Reality
US existing-home sales fell 2 per cent in August to a 3.98 million annual pace while listings rose to 1.62 million homes, the most since November 2019, and the ratio of the two is about 4.9 months of supply.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishersReality
UVA's W. Ben McCartney found low-down-payment mortgages common across 25 years of US data, before, during and after the housing bubble. The lenders changed, so explanations of the boom turn to income limits, paperwork and buyers' expectations.
Reality
Zillow counts just over 1.42 million US housing permits in the year to July, 19.4% below the pre-pandemic trend after 44 straight months of annual declines. Builders now finish homes faster, so the pipeline empties sooner while fewer new projects enter it.
Reality
The Case Shiller national index is up more than 55% for the 2020s without a price crash, because 40% of homeowners owe nothing, most of the rest refinanced below 3%, and the adjustment came out of sales volume.
Reality
The daily 30-year fixed reached 7.24% last week. Applications feeding Q4 closings are down far more than signed contracts, and the buyers still transacting are increasingly cash buyers.
Reality
Wolf Richter counts 34 bigger markets where mid-tier condo prices sit 15% to 34% below peaks mostly set in mid-2022, and six that are back under their 2006 highs. In San Francisco, houses are re-exploding while condos stay 7% under peak.
Reality
A Pew study puts that band at 22.3% of originations in 2024, while scores of 700 and above gained 24.9 points over the same period. Existing home sales are now running at a 3.98 million annual pace.
Reality
The 30-year mortgage sits 41 basis points above where it was last September, existing home sales have fallen three months running, and August's monthly inflation stepped back up to 0.4%. Housing-exposed plans need a new base case.
Reality
Prices across Texas and Florida are still soft and builders are clearing inventory instead of breaking ground. For anyone placing headcount, the number that matters is the ratio of housing cost to income.
Reality
The 30-year fixed rate slipped two basis points to 6.65%, its second straight weekly decline. It is still seven basis points above where it sat a year ago.
Reality