Leadership1 publisher2 min readPublished
US 30-year mortgage rate reaches 7.28% in step with a surging Treasury yield
Freddie Mac's benchmark 30-year mortgage rate rose to 7.28% this week, a sixth straight weekly increase and the highest since November 2023. Since February it has risen as far as the 10-year Treasury yield, so the cost of a move this fall depends on the bond market's inflation outlook.
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What happened
- The 30-year average rose from 7.03% the week before, the biggest one-week jump in several years.
- The 15-year fixed rate, often used for refinancing, rose to 6.60% from 6.42%, against 5.55% a year earlier.
- Mortgage applications fell 6% last week, a fourth straight weekly drop, and refinance applications also declined, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
- Existing home sales fell 2% in August from July to an annual pace of 3.98 million, the slowest in more than a year, the National Association of Realtors said.
- Adjustable-rate mortgages, which usually start at lower rates, made up more than 10% of applications last week, the MBA said.
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Why it matters
- constraint With the mortgage rate moving point for point with the 10-year yield, any fall forecast of housing-linked demand is in practice a forecast of oil prices and inflation expectations.
- exposure Buyers turning to adjustable-rate loans take a lower starting rate now and carry the risk of resets later, so relocating staff who choose them may face higher payments after the move.
- cost Businesses whose sales follow a home purchase are budgeting the fall season against fewer transactions, and they carry that shortfall until buyers come back.
On the figures in the ABC News report, the rise in mortgage rates since February has tracked the 10-year Treasury yield almost exactly. In late February the 30-year rate briefly dipped to 5.98%, its lowest since late 2022 [7]. The 10-year yield was at 3.97% then, before the war began [12]. This week the mortgage average is 7.28% [1], and the yield touched 5.27% in midday trading Thursday [12]. Each has risen 1.30 points [1][2]. The gap between them is about 2.01 points at both ends [3]. One figure is a weekly average and the other a single midday reading, so the match is approximate.
What is pushing that yield up has nothing to do with housing. The report links the rise in mortgage rates to the months since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran in late February [10]. Expectations of higher inflation as oil prices surged pushed the 10-year yield up [12], and lenders use that yield as a guide when they price home loans [11].
For a household, the change shows up in the monthly payment. The report puts the cost of a roughly one-point increase since February at about $276 a month on a $400,000 loan [8]. The distance from the February low to this week is 1.30 points [1], so the full move is bigger than the one that estimate covers. Compared with a year ago, the 30-year rate is 0.94 points higher [4].
An employer's planning problem is narrower than the housing market as a whole. It covers the hire or transfer that only works if someone buys a home in a new city. The report does not measure relocations or hiring that depends on a move. It does say higher rates limit buying power and can lead shoppers to put off buying [9]. That pressure lands on a market that has been in a slump since 2022. Sales of previously occupied homes were flat last year, at a 30-year low [13].
The case for waiting rests on February, when the 30-year rate was below 6% [7]. By the report's account that level lasted only briefly [7]. The yield behind the rise since then is roughly back where it was in 2007 [12]. We do not know yet how long it stays there. A company deciding this quarter whether to fund home-purchase support or push moves into next year is really choosing which quarter pays for them. In my view, deferring cuts this quarter's spending but leaves next quarter's moves priced off the same Treasury yield [11].
What to watch
- Whether the 10-year Treasury yield holds near 5.27% or falls back, since the 30-year rate has tracked it closely since February.
- Whether the roughly 2-point gap between the 30-year rate and the 10-year yield widens, which would mean mortgage rates are rising faster than the bond market alone explains.
- The next weekly MBA application figures and NAR's September existing-home sales, to see whether the four-week run of falling applications continues.