LeadershipNot yet confirmed elsewhere1 publisher2 min readPublished
EU fast-tracks 46 minerals projects on a 2030 timetable as Séjourné warns of a China crisis within months
EU industry commissioner Stéphane Séjourné backed 46 critical-materials projects costing €21bn and warned a China trade crisis could come within months. Flagship status speeds permits without EU cash, and the new supply is due by 2030, years past the window he described.
The Board Room · Leadership desk
What happened
- Trade commissioner Maroš Šefčovič held talks in Beijing on Friday aimed at reducing China's "unsustainable" £1bn-a-day trade surplus with the bloc.
- The 46 are the second batch of flagship projects named under the 2024 Critical Raw Materials Act, which legally requires the Commission to cut the bloc's foreign dependency.
- A gallium plant in Greece and the Keliber lithium plant in Finland, backed by €150m from the European Investment Bank, are already operating.
- French lithium refiner Viridian Lithium, granted EU strategic status in 2025, went into judicial liquidation in March.
Compiled by The Board RoomSomething wrong?How this is made
Why it matters
- constraint Buyers of dysprosium and terbium would still be relying on China if a disruption comes in the next few months, since the flagship plant for those oxides has yet to start.
- exposure A supplier holding EU strategic status is still a credit risk for its customers, because the label speeds permits but leaves the project to find its own funding.
- precedent Japan, the model Brussels cites, has cut its rare-earths reliance on China by 30 points since 2011 and still depends on it for 60%; success on that pattern reduces Chinese supply without replacing it.
Séjourné gave two timetables on Friday. The near one was his own warning. "We could face a crisis in the coming months," he said. "We may face trade tensions that could also trigger a crisis in a number of sectors. We need to be prepared for that. And we're getting ready right now." [2] The far one is written into law: targets to mine 10%, process 40% and recycle 25% of the bloc's needs by 2030 [14].
Rare earths show how far apart the two are. Of the three projects Séjourné singled out for accelerated permits [7], Carester's rare-earths plant near Pau is expected to start in late 2026 [8]. It will make dysprosium and terbium for electric-vehicle and offshore-wind magnets, which Séjourné described as "two raw materials for which we are almost entirely dependent on China" [8]. "This single project could account for about 15% of global production of these oxides. That is no small feat," he said [9].
The cash committed so far is a smaller figure. Séjourné cited €1bn unlocked by member states for six of the projects and €660m from the European Investment Bank for eight [17]. The account does not say which batch those projects belong to. The two sums come to €1.66bn [18], beside a €21bn funding cost for the new 46 alone [3].
The strongest objection comes from inside the programme. Earlier this year 23 of the 60 projects designated strategic in 2025, more than a third of that cohort [20], wrote to the Commission asking it to "urgently unlock projects, particularly those working towards final investment decision which face acute liquidity and market pressure and immediate jeopardy" [16]. Séjourné's answer is that the work is under way. "Mines are opening, factories are being built, financing agreements are being signed, and a European value chain is emerging," he said [6]. Both can be true. The letter's complaint is liquidity before a final investment decision, and a faster permit does not pay for that [16][13].
I think the fair reading for an operator buying lithium, gallium or rare-earth magnets is that Friday's list shapes supply for the end of the decade [1]. Exposure in the coming months runs through existing suppliers and through the talks in Beijing [4][21]. Séjourné drew the same line himself. "The primary objective is the targets set by law, and beyond that, there's a geopolitical challenge that could catch up with us very quickly," he said [5].
What to watch
- Whether Šefčovič's Beijing talks on the trade surplus reach terms or break down into the sector crises Séjourné described.
- Whether Carester's Pau plant starts on its late-2026 schedule, the first test of the accelerated permits.
- Whether more of the 2025 strategic projects follow Viridian Lithium into insolvency before reaching a final investment decision.
Clarity's read
What the record supports and how the coverage leans. The claims behind it follow.
Reality
- Evidence52
- Adoption30
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives55
- Confidence45
Claim ledger
Ranked by verification strength, evidence, and original report placement.
- [1]
The EU will support 46 new strategic projects to accelerate supplies of critical raw materials by 2030 across the bloc, Séjourné said on Friday.
ReportedSupportedSource: Stéphane Séjourné, EU industry commissioner, via the GuardianView cited source - [2]
"We could face a crisis in the coming months," he said. "We may face trade tensions that could also trigger a crisis in a number of sectors. We need to be prepared for that. And we're getting ready right now."
- [3]
The new projects include plants for supplies of lithium, gallium and rare earths needed for the auto, defence and renewable energy industries, with a funding cost of EUR 21bn.
- [4]
Trade commissioner Maros Sefcovic continued talks on Friday in Beijing aimed at reducing China's "unsustainable" GBP 1bn-a-day trade surplus with the bloc.
- [5]
"We're pulling out all the stops to move as quickly as possible. The primary objective is the targets set by law, and beyond that, there's a geopolitical challenge that could catch up with us very quickly," said Séjourné.
- [6]
"Mines are opening, factories are being built, financing agreements are being signed, and a European value chain is emerging," Séjourné added.
- [7]
Séjourné cited three 'emblematic' projects previously identified as strategic, earmarking them for accelerated permits.
- [8]
The Carester rare earths plant near Pau in south-western France, expected to be up and running in late 2026, produces dysprosium and terbium, "two raw materials for which we are almost entirely dependent on China", used in magnets for electric vehicles and offshore wind turbines.
- [9]
"This single project could account for about 15% of global production of these oxides. That is no small feat," Séjourné said.
- [10]
A gallium plant in Greece is already up and running, and Keliber, a lithium extraction and processing plant in Finland, is operational after EUR 150m support from the European Investment Bank.
- [11]
The 46 projects are the second batch to receive flagship status since the Critical Raw Materials Act of 2024, which legally mandates the European Commission to reduce the bloc's dependency on foreign countries.
- [12]
The EU hopes to follow Japan, which has reduced its dependency on China for rare earths to 60% from 90% since 2011, when Beijing prohibited some exports to Japan.
- [13]
Flagship status does not bring the projects direct funds; it enables accelerated permitting and help in mobilising funds.
- [14]
There has been criticism in EU industry that the scheme is not strong enough to deliver targets to mine 10%, process 40% and recycle 25% of the bloc's needs by 2030.
- [15]
French lithium refiner Viridian Lithium, which received EU strategic status in 2025, went into judicial liquidation in March this year.
- [16]
Earlier this year, 23 of the 60 projects designated strategic in 2025 wrote to the European Commission calling for more action to "urgently unlock projects, particularly those working towards final investment decision which face acute liquidity and market pressure and immediate jeopardy".
- [17]
Member states have unlocked EUR 1bn for six of the projects, with the European Investment Bank providing another EUR 660m for eight projects.
- [18]
Member-state and EIB money cited by Séjourné totals about EUR 1.66bn.
- [19]
Japan's reliance on China for rare earths fell by 30 percentage points after 2011 and remains at 60%.
- [20]
The 23 signatories were more than a third of the 60 projects designated strategic in 2025.
- [21]
On Séjourné's timetable, a crisis in the coming months would arrive before or as Carester's plant starts, while the EU remains almost entirely dependent on China for dysprosium and terbium.
Sources
1 independent publisher whose own reporting we read for this story.
- theguardian.comEU ‘pulling out all stops’ with minerals projects as it tries to avert China trade war
1 article · October 9, 2026
Topics and entities
Follow any of these and your For You feed starts watching them — no settings page required.
Entities
- Stéphane SéjournéFollow
- Maroš ŠefčovičFollow
- European CommissionFollow
- European Investment BankFollow
- Critical Raw Materials ActFollow
- CaresterFollow
- KeliberFollow
- Viridian LithiumFollow