DeepSeek's second round prices the lab at about 75 times its $1 billion revenue run rate

At the 6.7045 yuan to the dollar Reuters used, 500 billion yuan is about $74.6 billion ^[17][6]. Against the $1 billion annualized revenue run rate DeepSeek reported as of September ^[13], that comes to roughly 75 times revenue before any new money goes in ^[20]. Adding the money lifts the multiple. At the 80 billion yuan or more that Bloomberg reported ^[4], the post-money valuation is about 580 billion yuan, or $86.5 billion, close to 87 times the run rate ^[23]. The new money by itself is about 12 times a year of current revenue ^[15].

The reports disagree on the round's size. Bloomberg's figure of at least 80 billion yuan comes from people familiar with the matter, and Reuters, carrying the report, could not immediately verify it ^[4][10]. Crypto Briefing cites the same Bloomberg report for a headline of at least $12 billion ^[1] but describes the second round as around 50 billion yuan, roughly $7.4 billion to $7.5 billion ^[7]. The two figures are 30 billion yuan apart, about $4.5 billion ^[14]. At 50 billion yuan the new investors own roughly 9.1% of the company; at 80 billion they own roughly 13.8% ^[22][23].

The June mark was set by insiders, or rather by one insider. Founder Liang Wenfeng put about $3 billion of his own assets into a raise of roughly $7.4 billion that closed at a post-money valuation over $50 billion ^[3][5]. His share comes to about 41% of what was billed as DeepSeek's first external round, leaving roughly $4.4 billion from outsiders ^[16]. High-Flyer, the hedge fund Liang runs, had bankrolled the lab alone for three years before that ^[11]. The new pre-money is at most about 1.5 times the June post-money, a step-up of up to roughly 49% (less, since June closed "over" $50 billion) ^[21]. This time the largest commitments include Tencent and Contemporary Amperex Technology ^[9].

Much of the revenue growth came from the API business, where prices rose by 2.3 to 4.5 times and the unit posted an 82.9% gross margin ^[19]. The run rate more than doubled ^[13]. Price rises of that size could account for a doubling by themselves; the reports do not say how much usage grew.

At 80 billion yuan on a 500 billion yuan pre-money, the STAR Market offering ^[2] has to value DeepSeek above about $86.5 billion or mark these buyers down ^[23]. At 50 billion yuan, the bar is about $82 billion ^[22]. The price could also move before closing. Crypto Briefing lists that as an open question, along with whether the run rate keeps climbing and whether API margins hold once the price increases settle ^[12].

I think the 500 billion yuan is a bet that customers keep paying the higher API prices, and the figure the listing has to beat is the post-money, $82 billion to $86.5 billion ^[22][23]. The counter-case is that usage grows into the multiple, on models DeepSeek runs on domestic Huawei hardware ^[18], and 75 times turns out to be a 2026 number that falls quickly as revenue compounds ^[20]. A run rate that keeps rising after the price increases have worked through, with the 82.9% API margin intact ^[19], would prove the counter-case right.