OpenAI's $50 Billion Revenue Figure Reported as Oracle, AMD and TSMC Shares Fall

Yahoo Finance's account of the FT story builds the larger figure from two inputs ^[25]. Investors estimated that OpenAI's sales had reached a $40 billion annual pace in August. They then applied the 70% growth OpenAI later reported ^[25]. Grown by 70%, $40 billion becomes $68 billion ^[26]. The growth, though, was measured from the start of the third quarter ^[11], so stacking it on an August base counts part of the quarter twice. Run backward from $50 billion, the 77% third-quarter growth in the latest presentation implies a run rate of about $28 billion when the quarter opened ^[6][19].

CNBC's source described another construction. In that version the $68 billion included gross revenue from OpenAI's partners, so it could be set beside Anthropic's figure ^[2]. The reports also split on authorship. The FT, as relayed by Dow Jones, said information OpenAI itself shared with investors last month indicated roughly $70 billion ^[24]. Yahoo's version of the same story calls the swing an investor miscalculation ^[25]. OpenAI declined to comment to the FT ^[15].

The selling was uneven. By midday Celestica was down 5.9%, Oracle 4.9% and Micron 4.3% ^[3][4]. Broadcom, which is collaborating with OpenAI on a custom chip, lost 3.2% ^[4]. Microsoft slipped 1.2% ^[3]. The Nasdaq was off 1.4% in afternoon trading, with oil and Treasury yields also weighing ^[5]. The readings come from different hours, but on them Microsoft moved with the index while Celestica fell about four times as far ^[20].

OpenAI's backers also have its 2025 accounts. The company lost $38.5 billion that year on $13.07 billion of revenue, about $2.95 for each dollar sold ^[14][22]. It is in early talks on a round of around $30 billion with no term sheet, after closing $122 billion in March ^[9]. Chief financial officer Sarah Friar told CNBC last week that OpenAI is still "very well capitalized" ^[10].

The record supports more than one outcome. I think the likeliest is that only a definition changed: the $18 billion between $68 billion and $50 billion is what counting partner revenue at gross added, and Quartz, relaying CNBC, said no sales were lost ^[16][12]. A second reading has OpenAI handing investors the $70 billion figure itself, as the Dow Jones account has it ^[24]. In that case the cost shows up in the terms of the next round. The third is worst for OpenAI. Yahoo set OpenAI's $50 billion against Anthropic's $65 billion, a $15 billion deficit, while noting the two firms calculate annualized revenue differently ^[13][23]. If Anthropic counts gross, as CNBC's source implied, OpenAI's comparable $68 billion leads by $3 billion ^[2][21].

Yahoo Finance said Anthropic's public S-1 is expected any day, with a listing rumored before Thanksgiving ^[17]. It is the first public document that can show which basis Anthropic uses. If its $65 billion turns out to be net of partners, Thursday's selloff priced a real competitive gap and the first reading is wrong.