CMCC brief puts the adaptation delivery gap between national plans and financeable projects
CMCC Foundation brief says 143 of 154 developing countries had a National Adaptation Plan process by 2025 while implementation lagged. The count covers the planning stage and shows little about how many plans became financed projects.
The Scientist · Science desk
Share bar: 143 of 154 developing countries had a National Adaptation Plan process in place by 2025.
- NAP process in place by 2025, claim 1 143 of 154 developing countries 93% computed
NAP process in place by 2025 The rest of the 154
| Share | Part | Whole | Percent | Claim |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAP process in place by 2025 | 143 developing countries | 154 developing countries | 93% (computed) | 1 |
What happened
- The brief argues the central challenge is no longer writing plans but bridging a 'missing middle' between a national priority and a project or program that can secure finance and be implemented.
- The Adaptation Accelerator Hub, launched under Italy's 2024 G7 presidency, works with governments to turn their own priorities into coordinated, investment-ready programs.
- Brazil launched the NAP Implementation Alliance under the COP30 Action Agenda to improve coordination among governments, technical partners, climate funds, development banks and investors.
- The brief says bankability cannot be the only measure of progress, because capacity, climate data and social protection may not earn commercial returns but still need grants and public money.
Why it matters
- constraint A count of plan processes is near its ceiling, with at most 11 countries left to add, so it cannot show whether delivery is improving.
- cost In our view the loop charges the countries least able to prepare projects: without finance they cannot build the institutions and data that would make their next proposal fundable.
- decision Anyone scoring progress at COP31 must choose between counting financed projects alone and also counting capacity, data and social protection work that may earn no commercial return.
The 143 is a count of plan processes, and nothing in it measures delivery. By 2025, 143 of 154 developing countries had a National Adaptation Plan process in place [1], about 93 percent [14]. The shortfall the brief describes comes later. According to phys.org's account, many countries still lack the institutional capacity, project preparation and finance to turn priorities into bankable projects [2]. The summary does not say how many of the 143 have a financed project [1].
That makes the brief an argument about where the chain breaks. Marta Ellena, who wrote it for the CMCC Foundation [3], put the diagnosis this way: "Developing countries know what they need to do to adapt to climate change. The hard part is turning that knowledge into projects that will actually be financed," Ellena said [4].
The brief's explanation is a loop. Poor coordination between national and subnational governance can yield weak proposals. Those proposals have trouble drawing money, and without money a country cannot build up the institutions, data and monitoring that better projects depend on [6]. "Money, however, is only one part of the problem," Ellena said [7]. A policy brief can propose that chain. Testing it would take project-level records of which proposals failed, and at which link.
Ellena said the Adaptation Accelerator Hub and the NAP Implementation Alliance "work best when read together, as complementary pieces of the same delivery chain" [10]. That is a design claim about two platforms with different sponsors, Italy's G7 presidency for one and Brazil's COP30 Action Agenda for the other [8][9]. It stays untested until a country pilot runs through both.
What to watch
- How far a country-level pilot advances through both the Hub and the Alliance, the first test of the brief's delivery-chain claim.
- Whether the roles of the Adaptation Accelerator Hub and the NAP Implementation Alliance are communicated clearly before COP31.
- How much the project portfolio linked to finance grows, which is a closer measure of delivery than the count of plan processes.
Clarity's read
What the record supports and how the coverage leans. The claims behind it follow.
Reality
- Evidence40
- Adoption35
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives45
- Confidence50
Claim ledger
Ranked by verification strength, evidence, and original report placement.
- [1]
By 2025, 143 of 154 developing countries had a National Adaptation Plan process in place.
- [2]
Implementation has not kept pace: many countries still lack the institutional capacity, project preparation and finance needed to turn their priorities into strategies, bankable projects and results on the ground.
- [3]
Marta Ellena is the author of the CMCC Foundation (2026) brief 'Accelerating Adaptation Delivery'.
- [4]
"Developing countries know what they need to do to adapt to climate change. The hard part is turning that knowledge into projects that will actually be financed," said Ellena.
- [5]
The brief argues that the central challenge is no longer simply writing plans, but bridging the 'missing middle' between identifying a national priority and developing a project or program that can secure finance and be implemented.
- [6]
Challenges in coordinating across national and subnational governance structures can result in weak project proposals; weak proposals struggle to attract finance; and without finance, countries cannot improve the institutions, data and monitoring systems needed to develop stronger projects.
- [7]
"Money, however, is only one part of the problem," said Ellena.
- [8]
The Adaptation Accelerator Hub, launched under Italy's 2024 G7 presidency, works with governments to translate their own adaptation priorities into coordinated, investment-ready programs and coordinates among G7 partners.
- [9]
The NAP Implementation Alliance, launched under the COP30 Action Agenda by Brazil, works at the system level to improve coordination among governments, technical partners, climate funds, development banks and investors.
- [10]
Ellena said the policy brief shows that the Adaptation Accelerator Hub and the NAP Implementation Alliance "work best when read together, as complementary pieces of the same delivery chain".
- [11]
The brief stresses that bankability cannot be the only measure of progress: institutional capacity, climate data, social protection and support for particularly vulnerable communities may not generate commercial returns, but remain essential to effective adaptation and will continue to require grants, concessional finance and public investment.
- [12]
Looking toward COP31, where implementation including on adaptation will be a central theme, the brief points to three areas worth watching: how far a country-level pilot advances, how clearly the two initiatives' roles are communicated, and how much the project portfolio linked to finance has grown.
- [13]
Eleven of the 154 developing countries did not have a National Adaptation Plan process in place by 2025, so at most 11 more can be added to the count.
- [14]
143 of 154 countries is about 93 percent with a plan process in place.
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Sources
1 independent publisher whose own reporting we read for this story.
- phys.orgClimate adaptation's delivery gap: Turning national plans into action
1 article · October 14, 2026
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