Science1 publisher3 min readPublished
After the UK's record summer, 74% of people say they have directly experienced extreme heat
UK polling shows 74% of people now say they have directly experienced extreme heat, up from 46% before the record 2026 summer. Concern rose sharply, but support for specific climate policies moved only a few points.
The Scientist · Science desk
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What happened
- The Met Office says 35C was rare in the 20th century but has been exceeded in six of the past 10 years.
- Between April and August 2026, net support for a frequent flyer levy went from 18% to 20%, and for low-traffic neighbourhoods from 14% to 18%.
- Concern rose less in Scotland, where temperatures were generally lower over the summer.
Compiled by The ScientistSomething wrong?How this is made
Why it matters
- contradiction The account that reports the polling jumps also cites research finding extreme weather has a negligible effect on belief in climate change, so the gains say more about how people describe the summer than about minds changed.
- constraint A hot summer alone is unlikely to move the 27% of voters opposed to net zero, because heat raises policy support only for people who already link it to climate change.
- decision Policies aimed at behaviour have to work on cost and convenience: income explains about 18% of the variance in who flies, and climate concern explains under 1%.
Scotland is the closest thing this story has to a control group. Temperatures there were generally lower, and concern rose less [8]. You would expect less heat to go with less change if the summer itself moved opinion. The comparison is still crude, because regions differ in more than weather. The phys.org article does not name the pollsters or give the Scottish figures, so the size of that gap cannot be checked.
The headline gains also start from different baselines. The share of people saying they have directly experienced extreme heat rose 28 points, measured from just before the record-breaking 2026 summer [20] [21]. The wildfire figure starts in October 2024 [4]. Its rise to about 3.6 times the earlier level covers two summers [22]. The same applies to the share naming extreme heat as the most pressing climate impact, up from 36% to 62% since October 2024 [3], a 26-point rise [25].
Whatever the cause, the words people used changed. Researchers at the Center for Climate Change and Social Transformations found that during the 2022 heat wave many people still saw heat as desirable [10]. In the middle of summer 2026, British respondents associated the weather with words including "exhausted," "uncomfortable" and "unbearable" [11].
Support for specific measures moved much less. Net support for a frequent flyer levy rose 2 points between April and August 2026, and support for low-traffic neighbourhoods rose 4 [9] [24]. Reported experience of heat rose 28 points [21]. The broad questions moved more. In the polling, 51% said the heat waves made it more important that the government and businesses tackle climate change [7], and more than half said the heat had made them more fearful about the future [18].
The partisan split is wide. In one poll, 65% of the public said they were concerned about climate change and 16% said they were not [5]. Among Green Party supporters 87% were concerned, against 46% of Reform supporters [6], a gap of 41 points [23]. The article cites wider research finding that living through floods, hot summers or hurricanes has a negligible effect on belief in climate change [12]. Left-leaning groups are also more likely than right-wing supporters to report personal experience of extreme heat, and to back related policy after a heat wave [13]. So the 74% measures how people interpret the summer as well as how much heat they were exposed to. According to the article, extreme weather raises policy support only when people link it to climate change or when it fits their worldview [19], and there is no sign that the 27% of voters opposed to net zero will change their position because of a hot summer [14].
The thing these polls don't tell you is whether anyone will behave differently. The article reports that climate worry does not noticeably change behaviour such as saving water or driving less [16]. Personal income explains about 18% of the variance in whether people fly, and concern about climate change explains less than 1% [15]. Those figures are correlations, and they do not show what causes people to fly. Even so, the difference between them is large. The article argues that interventions work better when habits are disrupted, and gives the example of a garden hose ban, which policymakers could use to push people toward saving more water [17].
What to watch
- Release of the underlying polls with named pollsters, sample sizes and the Scottish breakdown, which would show how large the regional difference in concern was.
- Whether the small April-to-August gains in net support for a frequent flyer levy and low-traffic neighbourhoods last through the winter or fade.
- Whether a hosepipe ban or water shortage is used to push people toward saving water, as the article suggests.