Central bank analysis traces 55.2% of AI-firm investment to other AI firms
A central bank analysis found 55.2% of AI-firm investment came from other AI firms, a commentary on channelnewsasia.com reports. Nvidia's $30 billion OpenAI stake and up to $105 billion guarantee add to as much as $135 billion tied to its own chip demand.
The Investor · Invest desk
Key figures: Nvidia plans a guarantee of up to US$105 billion for an OpenAI data centre in Ohio and a US$30 billion investment in an OpenAI funding round. It has invested up to US$10 billion in Anthropic and bought US$2 billion of CoreWeave shares.
| Figure | Value | Note | Claim |
|---|---|---|---|
| Planned guarantee, OpenAI Ohio data centre, up to | US$105 billion | 2 | |
| Planned OpenAI funding round | US$30 billion | 1 | |
| Invested in Anthropic, up to | US$10 billion | 3 | |
| CoreWeave shares bought | US$2 billion | 4 |
What happened
- Nvidia struck more than 50 investment deals with AI companies in 2024 alone.
- Australian data centre builder Firmus, which abandoned its ASX listing plans last week, has Nvidia as investor, supplier and customer.
- The Financial Times reported that OpenAI's annualised revenue was $20 billion lower than the company had suggested.
- Chipmakers have contributed about 70% of the S&P 500's 2026 gains, and Nvidia is the index's largest company at about 8%.
Why it matters
- Who's exposed exposure Doubt about OpenAI's ability to meet its commitments reaches Nvidia twice, through lost orders and through its financing, and the index weight passes that to S&P 500 holders.
- Who has to decide decision Anyone valuing Nvidia has to decide how much of its customers' purchasing counts as end-user demand and how much is Nvidia's own capital coming back as orders.
- What it limits constraint Nvidia's undisclosed Firmus investment limits how precisely an outside investor can size the loop.
- What doesn't add up contradiction The financing that lets the build-out move faster than it could alone is the same financing that lets trouble at one firm spread to the others.
The 55.2% describes where the money came from, and it leaves 44.8% [26] coming from outside the sector. The commentary credits the figure to a central bank analysis [23] and does not name the bank, so we treat it as a pointer to a pattern.
Nvidia's own numbers show that pattern at larger scale. The $30 billion equity cheque [1] and the guarantee of up to $105 billion on the Ohio data centre [2] come to as much as $135 billion on one customer [18]. Add up to $10 billion in Anthropic [3] and $2 billion of CoreWeave shares [4] and the named total reaches as much as $147 billion [19]. That counts a guarantee at its ceiling as if it were cash, and a guarantee turns into cash only if the borrower fails to pay.
There are three ways to read that total. It overstates exposure, because the commentary says some of these deals are staged over years or still open-ended [6]. It understates dependence, because the loop has the supplier investing in a customer that spends the money on the supplier's chips while both report growth [14]. Or it matters less than it looks, given the outside 44.8% [26]. We think the second reading is closest, and the third is the best counter: outside money on that scale means the loop is large without being closed.
The test is OpenAI's revenue. The Financial Times report puts the shortfall at $20 billion of annualised revenue [21], or 66.7% of Nvidia's $30 billion cheque [22]. That sets a run rate against a one-off investment, so it is a sense of scale and nothing more.
Firmus shows the loop inside a single company. Nvidia first invested in its A$330 million raise in September 2025 and took part in two later rounds, in April and August 2026 [7]. Firmus plans to build on Nvidia's DSX platform [8]. Nvidia is also a customer, signed for the Batam data centre in a contract worth up to $30 billion over six years [9], or $5 billion a year [20]. OpenAI is the anchor customer at Firmus's Malaysian sites [10].
The Reserve Bank of Australia warned in its recent Financial Stability Review of "pockets" of higher-risk companies using opaque or circular funding [12]. On what could set off a fall, it wrote: "One possible trigger could be a shift in sentiment towards the AI investment boom, which is increasingly fuelled by expectations of sustained rapid earnings growth and a debt-financing cycle that is becoming more opaque and circular." [17] Nvidia's index weight turns that into a market question. If investors doubt that OpenAI and similar customers can earn enough to meet their commitments, Nvidia is hit through lower expected sales and through its financing exposure to the same companies [24].
Nvidia is not waiting for end-user revenue to arrive before the orders do; the cash it supplies lets the orders come first [15]. The thesis fails if OpenAI's revenue turns out to match what the company suggested before the Financial Times report, because the commitments would then rest on a larger base.
What to watch
- Whether the Financial Times revenue figure for OpenAI is confirmed, disputed or reconciled by the company.
- Whether Nvidia discloses what it put into Firmus, or any draw on the up-to-$105 billion Ohio guarantee.
- Whether the central bank behind the 55.2% figure is named, along with its definition of an AI firm.
Information, not investment advice. This story is general information about companies and markets, drawn from cited reporting. It is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security; check the cited sources before acting.
Clarity's read
What the record supports and how the coverage leans. The claims behind it follow.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap
- Not scored
- Incentives65
- Confidence45
Claim ledger
Ranked by verification strength, evidence, and original report placement.
- [1]
Nvidia will invest US$30 billion in a private funding round in OpenAI.
- [2]
Nvidia will provide a guarantee of up to US$105 billion for an OpenAI data centre in Ohio, as well as investing in the company building it.
- [3]
Nvidia has invested in Anthropic, the developer of Claude, up to US$10 billion.
- [4]
Nvidia bought US$2 billion of shares in cloud provider CoreWeave to help it speed up the build-out of AI factories that use Nvidia technology.
- [5]
Nvidia made more than 50 different investment deals in AI companies in 2024 alone.
- [6]
Some of Nvidia's investment deals are staged over years or still open-ended.
- [7]
Nvidia first invested in Firmus Technologies through its A$330 million capital raising in September 2025 to finance data centres in Tasmania, then participated as an existing investor in two further rounds: one in April 2026 and Firmus's US$2 billion round in August 2026.
- [8]
Firmus plans to build data centres using Nvidia's DSX AI factory platform, which combines chips, networking and software.
- [9]
Firmus signed Nvidia as a customer for its data centre in Batam, Indonesia, worth up to US$30 billion over six years.
- [10]
OpenAI has been named as an anchor customer at Firmus' Malaysian data centres.
- [11]
Firmus, an Australian data centre builder, abandoned plans to list on the Australian Securities Exchange last week.
- [12]
The Reserve Bank of Australia warned in its recent Financial Stability Review that there are 'pockets' of higher-risk companies, including those using opaque or circular funding arrangements, where chipmakers provide financing to the companies that purchase their products.
- [13]
On Wall Street, chipmakers have contributed around 70 per cent of the total gains in 2026 for the S&P 500, and Nvidia is the index's largest single company at about 8 per cent of the index.
- [14]
In circular financing, a chip supplier invests in a customer such as a data centre builder, the customer spends the money on the supplier's chips, and both companies report growth.
- [15]
Nvidia is investing in OpenAI to support data centres filled with Nvidia chips, which helps OpenAI remain Nvidia's best customer.
- [16]
Nvidia did not disclose how much it invested in Firmus.
- [17]
The RBA said: 'One possible trigger could be a shift in sentiment towards the AI investment boom, which is increasingly fuelled by expectations of sustained rapid earnings growth and a debt-financing cycle that is becoming more opaque and circular.'
- [18]
Nvidia's OpenAI equity plus the maximum guarantee comes to as much as $135 billion.
- [19]
Adding Anthropic (up to $10 billion) and CoreWeave ($2 billion) takes named Nvidia commitments to as much as $147 billion.
- [20]
A contract worth up to $30 billion over six years is up to $5 billion a year.
- [21]
The Financial Times reported that OpenAI's annualised revenues were US$20 billion less than the company had suggested.
- [22]
The reported $20 billion revenue shortfall equals about 66.7% of Nvidia's $30 billion OpenAI equity investment.
- [23]
One central bank analysis found that 55.2 per cent of investments into AI firms came from other AI firms.
- [24]
If investors begin doubting that OpenAI and similar customers can earn enough revenue to meet their commitments, Nvidia would be hit on two fronts: lower expected sales, and its financing exposure to those same companies.
- [25]
The commentary says circular deals help the AI build-out move faster than it could without Nvidia's financing, and that the same loop concentrates risk so that trouble at one firm can spread quickly to the others.
- [26]
If 55.2% of investment in AI firms came from other AI firms, 44.8% came from other sources.
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Sources
1 independent publisher whose own reporting we read for this story.
- channelnewsasia.comCommentary: Who’s paying whom? The circular money machine behind the AI boom
1 article · October 14, 2026
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