other
The Persian Gulf chokepoint at the center of the standoff, where open transits have dwindled to a trickle and a southern lane is reportedly used for nightly exits.
No evidence-backed relationships are recorded.
Abu Dhabi suspended trade and financial transactions with Tehran until further notice. That shuts a channel supplying more than 30% of Iranian imports, most of it third countries' goods.
Reality
The 10-year sits at 4.696% and the 30-year at 5.284%, both through the markers the Treasury Secretary was defending. The long end is pricing credibility, not the next rate decision.
Reality
Sea Legend Line's new Northern Sea Route service halves Suez transit times, but the corridor carried 23 container ships last year and runs on Russian permits.
Reality
The world added 600 terawatt-hours of solar generation last year, which the IEA calls the largest single-year jump for any electricity technology. The cost curve behind it is 47 years old.
Reality
Flows through the strait have swung between 3.7 million and 6.4 million barrels a day since mid-July, against about 9 million before. The hedge is against variance, not closure.
Reality
Iran wants a per-barrel fee for passage through the Strait of Hormuz, and the three main scenarios on offer all end with someone paying. Freight models built on mean reversion are the exposure.
Reality
The 60-day cease-fire window closed on the 16th. Washington is weighing secondary sanctions on Chinese buyers of Iranian crude while US pump prices run 29% above last year, three months from the midterms.
Reality
Trump wants Iran tariffs folded into a Russia sanctions bill that already cleared the Senate 86-12. With Hormuz contested, $80 oil is the calm case, not the base case.
Reality
Energy Secretary Chris Wright says Middle East flows are back to about 15 million bpd. Tanker trackers put Hormuz alone at 4 to 8 million, and the spread is the number that matters.
Reality
Erdogan wants the strait reopened and has signed a 750,000 b/d pipeline deal in case it isn't. Tehran's condition is war damages, which is a budget question, not a military one.
Reality
Tehran calls the strait shut. The Trump administration puts clandestine flows at 8-9 million barrels a day and analysts at 7, which is why oil is choppy rather than vertical.
Reality
A carrier nine months at sea, resupplied through a channel the blockade itself has degraded, is the clearest public evidence that the Gulf standoff has a physical ceiling and not only a political one.
Reality
Majidreza Hariri put a number on evading the U.S. naval blockade: about $18 billion a year in extra freight. The oil risk premium now rests on a sanctions regime, not a shooting war.
Reality
Anti-ship missiles fired toward the Gulf of Oman sit a few minutes' flight from a two-mile-wide outbound lane carrying about 21 million barrels a day. The escalation cycle now has a firing record.
Reality
Four dated IRGC episodes since April, a collapsed US-Iran safe-passage memorandum, and fresh fire toward the strait argue for a standing premium rather than a series of one-off scares.
Reality
A draft Iranian law would charge 7% of cargo value to transit the strait and fine refusers 20%. That makes it an insurance and charter-contract problem before it is a military one.
Reality
Drone strikes on two ADNOC tankers on August 14 nearly stopped traffic through the strait. A US sanctions package due the week of August 17 will not reopen it.
Reality
Oversupply, bypass pipelines and full storage absorbed what the IEA called the largest oil supply disruption on record. Those cushions are thinner now, and a second phase lands on a drawn-down system.
Reality
Treasury promises restrictions "never seen" and the Pentagon says the blockade can run indefinitely, while a record carrier deployment and 45 lost Reapers show what holding the line costs.
Reality
Casey's, Couche-Tard and Murphy USA are all up at least 24% this year on a defensive label. The earnings driver is a closed Strait of Hormuz, which is the opposite of defensive.
Reality